With Election Day less than four weeks away, Democratic strategists and donors fear that Vice President Kamala Harris is losing ground in the crucial “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—which could cost her the election.
The Democrats’ fears come as Harris’s polling leads have shrunk or even disappeared in the Blue Wall states even as the vice president has received favorable media coverage and good marks for her debate performance against former president Donald Trump, Axios reported.
Harris had a more-than-2-point lead in Pennsylvania following the Sept. 10 debate, but that lead has shrunk to about half a point as of Thursday, according to an average of polls from The Hill. In Wisconsin, Harris held an almost 5-point advantage over Trump following the Democratic National Convention in August, a lead that has also fallen to about half a point. Trump holds a half-point lead over the vice president in Michigan, a state where Harris led throughout August and September. Some polls even have Trump ahead of Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Trump was able to sweep all three states in the 2016 election, allowing him to beat then-candidate Hillary Clinton. Democrats fear a similar sweep in light of Harris’s record-low approval ratings among working-class voters and multiple unions’ decisions to withhold their endorsements.
The vice president is getting the “worst” support from union households for a Democratic presidential candidate “in a generation,” CNN’s data reporter said last month.
David Axelrod, a chief strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, told Axios that Harris “made steady, incremental progress in the 10 days after the [Sept. 10] debate, but now the race has plateaued.”
Harris “had a great launch, right through the convention and the debate,” Axelrod added. “But in these campaigns, every time you clear a bar, the bar gets raised. You have to lift your game and adjust your strategy.”
Other Democrats blamed Harris’s messaging during recent media appearances for why she’s falling flat with voters.
“I feel better than I did last week, but it still doesn’t feel great. I have a pit in my stomach,” one Democratic donor told The Hill, noting that Harris’s economic messaging in recent interviews is not resonating with voters.
Harris’s dwindling support in the Blue Wall states has trickled down-ballot, with some Senate races tightening in Republicans’ favor.
Republican Mike Rogers is gaining on Democrat Elissa Slotkin for Michigan’s open Senate seat. Slotkin warned donors last month that internal polling showed Harris “underwater” in the state.
In Wisconsin, meanwhile, a new rating from the Cook Political Report has shifted the Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up,” as incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin loses ground to Republican challenger Eric Hovde.
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