This article was originally published by Rhoda Wilson at The Exposé.
South Africa’s vital statistics show an unprecedented rise in deaths in 2021 following the rollout of COVID-19 injections, with a 19.6% increase in deaths compared to 2020.
The increase in deaths occurred across all vaccinated age cohorts except for those under 19 years old, who did not show a distinct death spike after COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out.
The correlation between the ramp-up of COVID-19 “vaccine” dosing and the spike in deaths in 2021 raises concerns about possible vaccine-related toxicity and warrants further examination for causation, Super Sally writes.
South African Vital Statistics, Though Incomplete, Show Unprecedented Rise in Deaths in 2021. Following the Covid-19 Vaccines Rollouts, a Rise in Deaths Occurred Across All Vaccinated Age Cohorts.
Birth statistics from Statistics South Africa are available up to 2023, but death statistics later than 2021 have not been released. Weekly death data to the end of 2024 is available from SAMRC.
By Super Sally, 2 July 2025
The Republic of South Africa has a current estimated population of 64.7 million. The 2024 mid-year life expectancy at birth was estimated at 69.2 years for females and 63.6 years for males, with overall life expectancy estimated at 66.5 years. Death reports refer to total deaths and natural deaths, with an average of 10.4% of deaths being non-natural (i.e., due to external cause: homicide, suicide, medical error, alcohol intoxication, drug overdose).
I accessed two sources of vital statistics. Statistics South Africa has provided annual birth data to 2023, and annual death data, including by age-breakdowns, up to 2021.
South African Medical Research Council (“SAMRC”) provides epidemiological week (“epi week”) death data with estimated weekly deaths from 2015 to 2019, and actual and predicted deaths, with age breakdowns from 2020 to 20241. All figures provided in this report reference the data source. Note that there is expected under registration of death data; however, the data is certainly adequate to show trending over the pandemic years. All data are raw counts for births and deaths with no adjustment for under-registration.
(Note: 1 SAMRC Burden of Disease Research Unit and UCT Centre for Actuarial Research)
COVID-19 Vaccination Rollout in South Africa
South Africa started its national vaccination programme against COVID-19 on 17 February 2021. Dosing remained at < 1% of the population until 21 May 2021 before administration ramped up. Population uptake increased to 44 doses per 100 people (25.4% of the population) by the end of December 2021. The latest available dosing data showed 67 doses per 100 people by September 2023, with some 33.72% of South Africans having been given COVID-19 vaccines.
The COVID-19 vaccination programme started with healthcare and frontline workers and then expanded to those over the age of 60. Vaccines were launched for the education sector on 23 June 2021. Covid-19 vaccines were ultimately offered to all South Africans aged 12 and older. The main vaccines used in South Africa, outside of clinical trials, were Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) and Pfizer-BioNTech. 33.7% of South Africa’s population had taken the primary series of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of 2022.
South Africa’s third wave of COVID-19 deaths exactly matched the ramping up of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in the second half of 2021.
South Africa Vital Statistics
The annual birth and death data for StatsSA are set out. Births have been steadily declining over time, with a 37% drop between 2004 and 2023. This drop may decrease with the compilation of late-registered births. Deaths show an undulating line, with a sharp rise in deaths in 2020 (+9.8%) and 2021 (+19.6%).
StatsSA provided 5-year age breakdowns of deaths from 2018 – 2020. This shows a decrease in deaths in persons aged 34 and younger in 2020 but an unprecedented rise in deaths across all ages in 2021.
SAMRC separates weekly deaths into total and natural. This figure sets out weekly deaths from 2020 epi week 1 to 2024 epi week 52.
The data plotted by week and year makes the extraordinary deaths in 2020 and 2021 abundantly clear. Total and natural deaths are shown in separate plots. Deaths were far higher in 2021 (+19.6%) following the rollout of covid-19 vaccines than they were in 2020 (+9.8% vs. 2019), which also had unprecedented death levels.
Deaths by age are set out. These figures use both StatsSA and SAMRC age data to show trends since 2015 and up to 2024. While figures don’t exactly match, due to late registrations for StatsSA, the trends agree. Lower than typical deaths in young persons in 2020 and catastrophically higher deaths in 2021. Infant and young child deaths rose above even 2021 levels in 2022, while deaths dropped off in all other age groups.
The following are the epi week natural deaths by age group for 2020 to 2024. The small marker indicates the start of covid-19 vaccination rollouts. The big marker indicates the ramp-up when dosing ramped up and first exceeded 1% of the population. Note that the death spike is broader (more deaths) consecutive with covid-19 vaccine ramp-up up than the first two covid-19 death waves. People up to 19 years of age don’t show the distinct death spike following rollout that is observed among older cohorts.
[Note: We have shown Super Sally’s four graphs by age group as a slide show (see below). If you are reading this article on a computer, click on the arrows on either side of the image to move from one image to another. If you are reading this from a mobile device, swipe left or right to move from one image to another.]
The correlation between COVID-19 vaccine dosing ramp-up and the extreme spike in deaths in 2021, with a smaller spike extending into 2022, should be examined for causation, particularly in relation to which vaccines were administered when. The extreme peaks in deaths, across all COVID-19 vaccinated ages, raise the spectre of possible vaccine-related toxicity. Similar excess deaths matching the timing of COVID-19 vaccines are apparent in many of the countries whose data I have examined.
The Philippines experienced hyper-excess deaths exactly matching the rollout of the COVAX-provided Janssen vaccines. I don’t have sufficient data to explore the possibility of any similar relationship for South Africa.
If any readers are aware of additional data that I may access to further assess South Africa’s pandemic years outcomes, please provide comments [below Super Sally’s article on Substack]. I will continue to explore data in the coming weeks and may publish an update to this report as more data comes to light.
About the Author
Super Sally is a pseudonym for Sally Ann Clark. Although she focuses mainly on the Philippines, she has also been analysing and reporting on excess death data in various other countries. She publishes articles on her findings on her Substack page, ‘Super Sally’s Newsletter.’ She has a summary page for the population vital statistics for Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Taiwan, which she will update as data becomes available. You can see her summary article HERE.
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