New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is holding on to a sizable lead in the New York City mayoral race, prediction markets data shows.
Mamdani, the self-described socialist who prevailed to secure the Democratic nomination for the Big Apple’s mayoral race this fall, has an 81% chance of winning the election this November, according to data from Interactive Brokers reviewed on Wednesday afternoon.
Over the last week, Mamdani’s odds have remained above 75% with his main challengers struggling to gain traction.
Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who was defeated by Mamdani in the Democratic primary, has the next best odds with a 20% chance of winning the mayoral race, per the Interactive Brokers market.
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Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who opted against competing in the Democratic primary and instead chose to run as an independent candidate, was in third place with a 6% chance of winning the race.
Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, who is known as the founder and leader of the Guardian Angels crime prevention group and was unopposed for the GOP nod, has a roughly 3% chance of prevailing in his bid to become mayor of New York City.
Mamndani also has a commanding lead on PredictIt with an 84% chance of winning. He also has an 84% chance of winning on Polymarket.
The 33-year-old Mamdani’s emergence as the frontrunner in the New York City mayoral race comes despite controversy over his policy platform, which features socialist policies that have drawn criticism from the business community.
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His campaign platform calls for raising New York City’s minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030, along with raising the corporate tax rate to match New Jersey’s 11.5% rate.
He has proposed building 200,000 new units of “permanently affordable, union-built, rent-stabilized homes” over the next decade while also immediately freezing rents for tenants in rent-stabilized units.
Mamdani’s platform includes the creation of city-owned grocery stores that would operate on a rent-free basis without property tax liabilities, with the stores buying and selling goods at “wholesale prices” to give consumers a “public option” in the grocery store market.
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Business leaders have criticized Mamdani’s policies over their potential impact on the city’s economy, though some have still looked to connect with the mayoral frontrunner despite the differences of opinion.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said last month at an event in Ireland that Mamdani is “more of a Marxist than a socialist,” adding that he’s pushing “ideological mush that means nothing in the real world.”
Despite that criticism, Dimon reportedly had a call with Mamdani last week that Bloomberg News reported was a friendly conversation, according to people briefed on the call.
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