New poll reveals Mamdani’s lead is shrinking as Cuomo gains ground in NYC showdown

With less than four weeks until Election Day, Zohran Mamdani maintains a double-digit lead in the race for New York City mayor, but former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is narrowing the gap, according to a new poll.

Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist state lawmaker from Queens who shocked the political world in June with his convincing win over Cuomo and nine other candidates to capture the Democratic Party’s mayoral nomination, stands at 46% support among likely voters in a Quinnipiac University poll.

Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid multiple scandals and who is running as an independent candidate in the general election after losing the primary, grabbed 33% support in the survey.

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Guardian Angels co-founder Curtis Sliwa, who for a second straight election is the Republican mayoral nominee in the Democratic-dominated city, stood at 15% in the poll.

The survey in the nation’s most populous city was conducted Oct. 3–7, entirely after embattled Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat who was running for re-election as an independent, dropped out of the race. 

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In Quinnipiac University’s previous poll, conducted in early September, Mamdani held a 22-point 45%-23% lead over Cuomo, with Sliwa at 15% and Adams at 12%.

“The numbers changed, but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters, cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact,” Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Mary Snow said.

But Cuomo campaign spokesman Rich Azzopardi claimed in a statement that the survey confirmed that “this race is shifting decisively” and that “Mamdani remains stagnant.”

Mamdani’s strongest support is among Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%), voters 18 to 34 years old (62%), and voters 35 to 49 years old (60%), according to the poll.

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The survey indicates that Cuomo’s strongest support is among Jewish voters (60%), and Sliwa’s strongest support is among Republicans (54%).

Mamdani was winning the enthusiasm battle with 90% of his supporters saying they were very or somewhat enthusiastic. The level of enthusiasm dropped to 85% among Sliwa supporters and down to 69% among those backing Cuomo.

The Ugandan-born Mamdani, if elected, would become the first Muslim and first millennial mayor of the nation’s most populous city.

Mamdani surged to the Democratic primary victory thanks to an energetic campaign that put a major focus on affordability and New York City’s high cost of living. It was fueled by a grassroots army of supporters and backing from top national progressive champions, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Mamdani made smart use of social media platforms, including TikTok, as he engaged low-propensity voters. He proposed eliminating fares to ride New York City’s vast bus system, making CUNY (City University of New York) “tuition-free,” freezing rents on municipal housing, offering free child care for children up to age 5 and setting up government-run grocery stores.

Mamdani has been heavily criticized by his rivals not only for his far-left proposals, but also for his criticism of Israel, his past negative comments regarding the New York City Police Department (NYPD), and his proposal to shift certain responsibilities away from the NYPD and focus on social services and community-based programs.