This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge under the title: Trump Tells Iran ‘Get Serious’ About Negotiations Or ‘No Turning Back’ As WH Mulls Plans For ‘Final Blow.’
Summary
- White House, Pentagon reviewing options for ‘final blow’ as Trump tells Iranians ‘get serious’ about talks, which they’ve rejected.
- Trump said to want ‘speedy end to war’ (WSJ) while at the same time warning Tehran of ‘no turning back’ if it doesn’t negotiate.
- Israel says it has killed Alireza Tangsiri, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy.
- Iran “laying Traps” & “building up defenses” on Kharg Island; NYT report says 13 US regional bases largely ‘uninhabitable’ in the wake of Iran’s ballistic missile retaliation on the Gulf.
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‘Final Blow’
President Trump, on Thursday, is on the one hand calling on Iran “to get serious soon” in negotiations with the US “before it is too late” – while on the other, he’s said to be mulling plans for a “final blow” in the military campaign. Axios writes that several possibilities are being considered, all of which point toward serious escalation and, in some cases, even ground troops. All but one of the below “final blow” options carry the potential for the US to get stuck in Iran for years:
— Seize or blockade Kharg Island (Iran’s main oil export hub).
— Invade/control Larak Island (key to Strait of Hormuz control).
— Take Abu Musa + nearby islands (strategic entrance to the strait).
— Block or seize Iranian oil tankers in the region.
— Launch massive airstrikes on nuclear/energy sites.
— (More extreme) Ground operations inside Iran to secure nuclear material.
Axios elsewhere reminds: “Trump’s five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure expires Saturday, and a dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress is made in diplomatic talks, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”
Negotiations or ‘No Turning Back’
Meanwhile, below are a couple of the latest Iran-related Truth Social posts by President Trump, at a moment when Iran has made clear it will reject direct talks until its ‘five conditions’ are met. Iran has said it won’t be “fooled again,” and even though Trump has declared ‘success’ and that Iran has been “militarily obliterated, it’s clear that Tehran has serious strategic leverage given its de facto control of the Hormuz Strait.
Trump threatens in all caps that if Iran doesn’t relent, then there is “no turning back” – however, the WSJ is at the same time reporting Trump has told aides he wants a speedy end to the war.
“President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks,” WSJ writes.
The publication continues, “Nearly one month into the war, the president has privately informed advisers he thinks the conflict is in its final stages, urging them to stick to the four-to-six-week timeline he has outlined publicly, according to people familiar with the matter. White House officials planned a mid-May summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing with the expectation that the war would be concluded before the meeting begins, some of the people said.”
And then it states the obvious, which should have been known before Operation Epic Fury was launched: “The problem is Trump has no easy options for ending the war, and peace negotiations are at a nascent stage.” Certainly, all of the above-mentioned ‘final blow’ options carry extreme risk of quagmire (which might make the Iraq and Afghan wars easy by comparison). Path to offramp or more massive escalation coming?
IRGC Navy Commander Killed, Says Israel
Israel says one of its air strikes has killed Alireza Tangsiri, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy, in another reported top-level death. Defense Minister Israel Katz described the strike as carried out on Wednesday night “in a precise … operation” and targeted other “senior officers of the naval command.” He played a central role in controlling the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and recently issued direct warnings to Israel and the United States, including threats to close the waterway; however, just like all Iran’s military commanders, he’ll likely soon be replaced.
Overnight and in the last 24 hours, Iran has targeted more key refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which Gulf states have described as a “brutal aggression” against the global economy. Gulf Cooperation Council officials said the situation is an “international responsibility,” warning that “what is a threat today will grow” and stressing that oil supply chains must be protected.
Reminder: Israel keeps an ‘assassination list’ and has reportedly removed these two men from it, to leave room for negotiations, apparently. Below: Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi
The GCC called for de-escalation, stating their goal is a “diplomatic solution” to end the attacks, at a moment when Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are said to be seeking mediation to get peace talks off the ground. “Our main message to our partners in the world is to send an international message, a unified message to Iran to stop immediately and unconditionally their attacks against the GCC countries.” They added their objective is not to “destroy” Iran but to build a “good relationship,” warning that “the deterioration of the situation in the Arab Gulf will be a warning that will exceed the Gulf area.”
Casualties in Iran: Iran’s Deputy Health Minister Ali Jafarian said at least 1,937 people have been killed during the war, including 240 women and 212 children. He added that at least 24,800 people have been injured, including around 4,000 women and 1,621 children.
Meanwhile Iran continues to send steady missiles and drones on Israel, with mounting Israeli casualties and much infrastructure, cities, and neighborhoods suffering severe damage.
’13 US Regional Bases Uninhabitable’: NYT
…Something analysts suspected was the case over the course of the last weeks of expanding war: “Many of the 13 military bases in the region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable, with the ones in Kuwait, which is next door to Iran, suffering perhaps the most damage.” This is based on statements by unnamed US defense officials who admit they’ve had to scramble to find ‘alternative’ housing and office solutions for personnel.
The revelation comes on the heels of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) having earlier warned that if American troops are ‘stationed’ in hotels or civilian office complexes, then those hotels and locations effectively become targets.
The Times report suggests that the US saw early fatalities and casualties (CENTCOM figures say 13 dead and some 300 injuries thus far) in part due to lack of preparedness for such a robust Iranian ballistic missile retaliation on US regional bases.
Iran “Laying Traps” & “Building Up Defenses” On Kharg Island
Iranian forces are said to be “laying traps” and “building up defenses” on Kharg Island, in preparation for a possible US ground attack and takeover. Iran has recently bolstered its defenses around Kharg Island, anticipating a possible US move to seize the key oil export hub, CNN reported this week. The island is vital to Iran’s economy, handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, and has become a focal point in escalating tensions.
There is also growing skepticism among US allies and policymakers about whether capturing the island would achieve its broader objective. Even some Republicans are starting to publicly push back against any possible plans involving ground forces.
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More headlines and latest developments:
- Iranian state TV quoted an anonymous official saying Tehran rejected the plan delivered via Pakistan and will “end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met”.
- Iranian FM: “At present, our policy is the continuation of resistance. We do not intend to negotiate – so far, no negotiations have taken place, and I believe our position is completely principled.”
- The White House said the US is “very close to meeting the core objectives in Iran” and warned Donald Trump is prepared to “unleash hell” if Iran does not accept defeat.
- Trump said negotiations are under way and claimed Iran wants “to make a deal so badly” but that “they’re afraid to say it, because they figure they’ll be killed by their own people”.
- VP Vance may travel to Pakistan this weekend for potential talks with Iran.
- Iran has threatened to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—the vital Red Sea route connecting the Mediterranean with MENA and Asia—if attacks target its territory or islands.
- Iran attacked a power plant in Israel; the state monopoly said there was no infrastructure damage.
- Iran said the US and Israel attacked the vicinity of the Bushehr nuclear plant.
- Media coverage of potential Kharg Island takeover scenarios has intensified in the past 24 hours.
- Iran’s parliament is working on a bill to impose fees on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- The Israeli military said it carried out a “wide-scale wave of strikes on Iran” this morning.
- The Telegraph: Russia has begun arming Iran with drones in the first known transfer of lethal munitions from Moscow to Tehran since the war began.
- The United Kingdom is discussing with global partners “a viable plan” to secure maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
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