Lincoln Riley’s tenure as head coach of the USC Trojans hasn’t been smooth sailing.
When he took over ahead of the 2022 season, expectations were high that a coach with his track record would bring the Trojans back to their heyday. While with the Oklahoma Sooners, he went 55-10 and 33-7 in conference, coached in four New Year’s Six games, and won 12 games three consecutive seasons.
In 2022, SC was a Caleb Williams injury away from potentially reaching the playoff with a win in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but ever since, the Trojans have never threatened to get into the expanded field. Fast forward to 2026, and it’s a pivotal season for Riley.
The USC athletic department is finally aligned under general manager Chad Bowden, and their NIL program has helped bring in the country’s No. 1 recruiting class. But their schedule is extremely tough, and patience is wearing thin.
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Riley though, has never been more confident.
“It’s May, right? But looking at it in May, there’s definitely a real difference. It’s tangible. It’s not just hope,” Riley said at the recent Big Ten meetings, per CBS Sports. “The program has taken steps, not only in talent acquisition and building the roster, but there’s also teaching them to win, and the progression that comes with that. I know — I’ve seen — the real steps we’ve taken on the field. I’ve seen the signs off the field.”
“I’m a lot better coach than at any point during the years at Oklahoma,” he said. “I’ve definitely learned and grown a lot. There are a lot of things I’ve learned now that I wish I had known back then.”
Again, Riley averaged around 11 wins per year in Oklahoma, a number that he’s yet to accomplish at SC. But he believes that the Trojans are “close,” that a few snaps going differently would have put them in the playoff.
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“We were close enough last year to taste it,” Riley said. “I mean, literally snaps away from being right in it. I know we have absolutely taken steps. Honestly, now, it’s just time to go do it. It’s time. The program’s ready for it. I caught some flak from saying at the end of the year that I thought we had opened up a window, but it’s true. It’s how I feel.”
Yes, the Trojans were “snaps” away, in that they led the Illinois Fighting Illini late in the fourth quarter before coming up short. And they had opportunities against Notre Dame that could have made that game closer. But elite teams, more often than not, find a way to get those snaps to go their way in pivotal situations against top opponents. SC hasn’t. They also were thoroughly outplayed by the Oregon Ducks in Eugene.
And many SC fans would point the finger at Riley for that failure. Like, for example, calling a risky trick play in South Bend that resulted in wide receiver Makai Lemon fumbling on first-and-10 from the Notre Dame 37-yard line down three points in the fourth quarter.
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This season, even without Notre Dame on the schedule, they play at Indiana and Penn State, host Ohio State, Oregon and Washington. As well as a rivalry game against a new coach at UCLA, and another road trip to Wisconsin.
They could win nine games and still have a “successful” season. But if Riley really has improved and learned as head coach, he’ll have to win 10 and reach the playoff. Or the questions around his job are going to get much louder, very quickly.
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