The news just keeps getting worse for “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” The Walt Disney Company, Lucasfilm, and by extension, the future of the Star Wars franchise.
It was just over a decade ago that “The Force Awakens” became the highest-grossing movie, not adjusted for inflation, in the history of domestic U.S. box office. While deeply flawed and derivative, it at least attempted to set up a cohesive storyline for a new generation of Star Wars trilogy.
It’s been downhill ever since.
As soon as “The Last Jedi” hit theaters several years later, it became clear that Lucasfilm, then-headed by Kathleen Kennedy, had no coherent plan for the series. “The Last Jedi” undid much of “The Force Awakens,” had little explanation for plot setups in the first film, and treated the legendary hero of the Star Wars universe with disdain. In short, a microcosm of the problems with modern filmmaking.
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The studio scrambled, brought back J.J. Abrams to fix things with “The Rise of Skywalker.” Which was widely panned for its unrealistic plot, laughable dialogue, and inexplicable plotting. Fast forward seven years, and “The Mandalorian and Grogu” hit theaters as the first Star Wars film of the 2020s.
Opening weekend ticket sales were disappointing, coming in on the low end of estimates at around $81 million, and the long Memorial Day weekend gross winding up far short of “Solo,” the last non-trilogy film in the Star Wars universe. That seemed to set up Disney to potentially take a small loss, or struggle to the theatrical break-even point.
Still, if the film had positive word of mouth, a strong second week could have put “The Mandalorian and Grogu” back on track financially. With this past weekend’s box office results now in, unfortunately for Disney, it was the exact opposite.
According to Box Office Mojo, not only did “The Mandalorian and Grogu” drop out of the top spot in theaters, it fell all the way to third thanks to a whopping 70% collapse in revenues. Its opening weekend was a disappointing $81.7 million, and it fell all the way to just $25 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s not unprecedented, but it sure is disastrous.
Even more incredible, the two movies that beat out “The Mandalorian” were low-budget films from essentially first-time directors. “Backrooms” is a $10 million horror movie from 20-year-old YouTuber Kane Parsons. It made $81.4 million in its first weekend, just slightly less than a $175 million Star Wars movie, despite not hitting theaters on a holiday weekend.
“Obsession” also beat out “The Mandalorian,” grossing an estimated $26.4 million over the weekend. That movie was directed by Curry Barker, a 26-year-old who found fame from YouTube and TikTok. The production budget on “Obsession,” at around $750,000, was likely lower than what “The Mandalorian” spent on office supplies. It outgrossed it this past weekend anyway.
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These results also cement that Disney will likely lose a substantial amount of money on “The Mandalorian.” Reports have suggested that production and marketing costs ran around $300 million. Even if tax credits brought that down, a reasonable break-even point would be around $500 million worldwide. At $137 million domestically and a 70% drop, it’s not going to come close.
Another 70% drop for its third weekend would be just $7.5 million in grosses, all but guaranteeing it winds up well short of $200 million domestically. With international grosses better, but still underwhelming, it’s possible that “The Mandalorian and Grogu” fails to reach even $375 million worldwide. Potentially handing Disney a $100 million+ loss. For a Star Wars movie.
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There are plenty of lessons to learn from this, if anyone involved is interested in learning them. Churning out lazy, uninspired movies no longer works, even if they’re attached to a previously important brand name. Years of degrading the Star Wars legacy with terrible, unwatchable streaming series and the disappointing end of the previous trilogy have taken their toll.
Teenagers today don’t have the same reverence for Star Wars that prior generations did. Because the movies they’ve seen have not been good enough to warrant it. Instead of checking specific boxes and satisfying targets, focus on quality stories and memorable characters. Does anyone care about Rey, or Poe, or Finn? Of course not. But Han Solo, Princess Leia, Luke Skywalker, Lando Calrissian and Chewbacca remain beloved parts of film history. Under Disney and Kathleen Kennedy, they’ve forgotten what made Star Wars what it is. Or used to be. And as this past weekend shows, where two low-budget horror movies from YouTubers outgrossed a Star Wars movie, it might be too late to fix it.
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