Americans born after 1970 face higher death rates from several major causes in middle age

Americans born after 1970 are dying faster than their parents did, data shows.

New analysis from Tufts University reveals that Gen Xers and millennials are failing to outlive their predecessors, dying at higher rates from common chronic illnesses and external causes than previous generations did when they were the same age.

Data shows that U.S. life expectancy has steadily improved for most of the 20th century, meaning each generation generally lived longer than the one before it.

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However, that changed starting with individuals born in the 1950s. While Americans born in the 1940s experienced steadily improving survival rates at every stage of life, those born in the 1950s saw that progress slow or reverse.

The downward trend has continued with each subsequent generation, with the biggest change seen in Americans born after 1970.

The research, which tracks 45 years of American mortality data from 1979 to 2019, was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, according to a Tufts press release.

Between the ages of 30 and 49, Americans born after 1970 experience higher death rates from heart disease, cancer and external causes (such as drug overdoses, suicide, homicides and traffic accidents) compared to older generations when they were in that same age bracket.

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Why are younger generations dying sooner?

Because the study focused on mapping patterns rather than conducting clinical trials, researchers say it can’t point to a single definitive cause for the decline.

However, the study points out two distinct issues affecting American life expectancy. The first is generational decline, meaning that newer generations are entering middle age while carrying higher risk factors than their predecessors.

Additionally, a separate, nationwide setback began around 2010, negatively impacting almost every living adult simultaneously, regardless of their birth year. Researchers say this period was marked by a slowdown of decades-long progress against cardiovascular disease.

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U.S. life expectancy improved by just 0.26 years between 2010 and 2019. In comparison, the country gained an average of 1.78 years of life expectancy per decade over the previous 50 years, according to the analysis.

This has caused the U.S. to fall further behind on a global scale. The life expectancy gap between the U.S. and the top-performing nation grew from 2.6 years in 1983 to 4.7 years by 2009.

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Shifting health risks

Earlier generations were heavily impacted by cigarette smoking. In contrast, younger generations face rising obesity rates and related conditions, such as colon cancer, data shows.

The researchers noted that the rise of the opioid epidemic also significantly accelerated overdose deaths for post-1970 generations starting in the late 1990s.

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The team cited widening economic inequality, social instability and chronic stress as larger issues that could be driving multiple causes of death at the same time.

Because Americans born after 1970 are still in the middle stages of life, the full impact of these elevated mortality rates has not yet fully registered in overall national life expectancy figures, they noted.

“Although this study does not provide direct evidence, we can speculate about some interventions to explore,” lead study author Leah Abrams, an assistant professor of community health at Tufts University, said in the press release.

“To reduce deaths from cardiovascular disease, we may want to address risk factors such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity. Addressing colon cancer mortality among younger individuals may involve related factors and benefit from improving diet.”

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Looking ahead, the researchers plan to analyze newly released 2024 mortality data to understand how the pandemic may have affected U.S. mortality trends.