I finally was able to break free of my losing streak with a win yesterday.
I won’t say it didn’t have its sweaty moments, because the game ended 4-3 in extra innings. However, that still gave us a win on the under. Any time a game goes into extra innings, you have to get a little nervous, especially with the runner on second rule. We dodged a bullet there, and hopefully we can dodge another one here.
The New York Yankees look like they are the best team in the American League, and they don’t even have their best player. The team is getting some surprise contributions from guys like Paul Goldschmidt, who I thought was done with his days of being a contributor.
The team is hitting .241 for the season, and they have one of the better pitching staffs in the game as well. They are a legitimate World Series contender. The question is if the pieces can all fit together for the whole season. We’ve seen multiple teams fall apart after a good half of a year. The Yankees can look at their National League counterpart from last year to know that a good half doesn’t assure you of anything.
Today, they turn to Carlos Rodon, who has been one of the better pitchers in the Yankees’ rotation. For the season, Rodon is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. None of those numbers are eye-popping, but for a third starter on the team, they are very welcome. He hasn’t been quite as sharp on the road as he has been at home, throwing to a 4.26 road ERA. The good news for the Yankees is that they seem to have found him to be consistent – he will give you five or six innings and three or fewer runs. Boston Red Sox hitters don’t have a great history against him, batting just .227 in 75 at-bats.
If the Red Sox are somehow able to make it into the postseason, this is one of those series they will look at as the launch pad for their success. They have already won the four-game set from the Yankees, and now they are looking to get the sweep. Boston hasn’t been very good this year, and are still 11 games under .500. They only had 12 wins at Fenway coming into this series, so getting three against a good team has to feel like a step in the right direction for them.
Even on the broadcast yesterday, they were talking about trading away guys. There is still no indication of whether they are going to do that or if they will take a different course of action. As of right now, Sonny Gray, today’s starter, has to be fairly high on people’s wish lists if they are going to listen to offers. Gray has been very good this year going 9-1 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. His performance at Fenway is a major reason Boston was getting any wins there. He has a 2.61 home ERA and a perfect 4-0 record. We have bet on him multiple times at home this season, and he really hasn’t disappointed.
Gray faced the Yankees at the beginning of the month and went 6.1 innings, allowing three earned runs and two homers. This month has been a bit strange for Gray with homers because he has allowed five homers in four starts. The rest of the year, he has allowed just four homers in 10 starts. I’m not sure what is causing it or if it is just regression to the mean.
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Either way, today is a day to once again back the under. With these two pitchers on the mound, we should see the teams swinging and missing quite a bit. It would be really strange for me to see them getting a bunch of hits strung together. I think we should get a final of something like 3-1 or 4-2. Give me the under for this one.
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