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Thirty days after the U.S. and Iran entered a two-month negotiating period intended to produce a final peace agreement between the two countries, they appear closer to a widening war than to a diplomatic breakthrough.
Friday marks the halfway point of the 60-day window established under the June 17 memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, which called for negotiations for Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, sanctions and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Friday marks the halfway point of the 60-day window established under the June 17 memorandum of understanding deal between the U.S. and Iran, which called for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, sanctions and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
But the first half of that period has been marked by repeated Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, hundreds of U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets and retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the region, and President Donald Trump declaring the ceasefire “over.”
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The Trump administration also has withdrawn one of the most significant concessions it offered Iran under the agreement — a temporary waiver allowing Iran to sell oil — and restored a naval blockade that had been lifted after the memorandum was signed.
With only 30 days remaining, the administration is increasingly relying on military and economic pressure in an effort to bring Iran back to substantive negotiations before the window closes. Failure would leave the two sides without a clear diplomatic path to address Iran’s nuclear and missile programs or restore safe passage through one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.
Trump nevertheless said Thursday that Iran had made a fresh overture to the U.S.
“We received a call just as I was coming here, and they want to meet,” Trump said during a Fox News interview Thursday.
“They don’t like what we’re doing, and they do want to settle,” he added in remarks later that day. “We’ll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off.”
The Iranian mission to the United Nations could not immediately be reached for comment on the status of negotiations.
The White House referred to press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s comments in a news briefing Thursday: “Iran very much continues to talk to the United States of America and expressed that they want to make a deal with us because they are suffering devastating blows. On behalf of our United States military. The reason and this is important for the American people to understand the reason for the recent strikes over the course of the last several days is because Iran violated the memorandum of understanding that we struck with them.”
The agreement initially provided Iran with an immediate economic incentive to remain in the process. On June 22, the Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing the production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products through Aug. 21.
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But the administration revoked that authorization less than three weeks later after Iran attacked three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
A U.S. official said at the time that the agreement was “entirely performance-based” and warned that Iran would receive benefits only if it demonstrated “good behavior.”
“Iran’s actions in the strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences,” the official said. “Our negotiators continue to work in good faith toward a final deal.”
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Iran accused Washington of violating the memorandum, arguing that Tehran was complying with its obligations by managing passage through the strait. Iranian officials blamed shipping companies for using routes that had not been coordinated with Tehran.
Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum, argued that Washington and Tehran entered the negotiating period with fundamentally different objectives.
“The U.S. saw it as an opportunity to get a long-term agreement,” Roman told Fox News Digital. “The Iranians saw it as an opportunity to rearm.”
Roman said the renewed fighting suggests the administration now views military pressure as a prerequisite for diplomacy.
“You have to hit them hard before you get an agreement,” he said.
Former Trump Defense Secretary Mark Esper, however, questioned whether an expanded bombing campaign would force Iran to change course.
“I’m not confident that if we picked up the bombing the way we did months ago and sustained it for a period of time, that that would have a big change,” Esper told the Financial Times.
Esper instead argued for “comprehensive” economic pressure backed by international support, though he acknowledged that approach would require time and impose costs on American consumers.
“How do you pressure them?” Esper said. “One option is you resort to full military onslaught. The other one is you strangle them economically.”
Esper said the strategy would require “time, patience (and) discipline” and could mean higher gasoline prices in the short term.
The sanctions reversal coincided with a dramatic expansion of U.S. military operations against Iran.
The fighting resumed within days of the agreement and accelerated sharply in early July after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM said U.S. forces subsequently struck more than 300 Iranian targets over three nights, including air defenses, missile and drone sites, coastal radars and naval capabilities.
The campaign has since expanded deeper into Iran.
The sixth consecutive night of U.S. strikes marked a new phase in the campaign, with roads, bridges and military bases around Bandar Abbas among the targets, Fox News has learned. The strikes were aimed at cutting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces off from resupply routes and further isolating them around the strategic port city, which is central to Iran’s ability to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. also reinstated its blockade of Iranian ports and disabled the Curaçao-flagged tanker Belma after CENTCOM said it ignored warnings while sailing toward Iran’s primary oil-export terminal.
Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks against countries hosting U.S. forces across the Gulf. On Friday, an Iranian strike damaged a major power and desalination plant in Kuwait, while Qatar, Bahrain and other regional states reported additional incoming attacks.
“All the infrastructure in the region will be crushed under the steel blows of the powerful armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran” if the United States carries out those attacks, Iranian military spokesman Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari said in remarks carried by Fars news agency.
“Under no circumstances and in no way will we allow America, as a foreign and extraregional country, to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz,” he added, calling the waterway Iran’s “invincible red line.”
Despite the escalating threats, Trump has continued to argue that a diplomatic resolution remains possible.
“They don’t like what we’re doing, and they do want to settle,” Trump said Wednesday. “We’ll find out whether or not we settle with them, or we just finish it off.”
One potential sign that communication remains open came Wednesday, when Iran allowed U.S.-Iranian citizen Dena Karari to leave the country after preventing her departure since December 2024. Trump thanked Iran for what he described as a “gesture of goodwill.”
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Salvaging the agreement would now require the two sides to move beyond preliminary contacts, halt the widening cycle of retaliation and return to negotiations over the nuclear, missile and sanctions issues at the heart of the memorandum.
The next 30 days will determine whether the renewed military pressure creates leverage for that diplomacy — or ensures the negotiating window closes with the United States and Iran again at war.
Fox News’ Jen Griffin contributed to this report.
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