Xi may visit Carney; Trump mulls renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America
Behind the trade war between the U.S. and Canada is a higher-stakes strategic competition between the U.S. and China.
President Trump pointed to the issue in an August 25 White House press release headlined “President Trump Is Finally Ending Canada’s Free Ride.” The only country mentioned in the release other than the U.S. and Canada was China: “The record of Canadian abuse is clear and deliberate: FACT: Canada is joined only by the People’s Republic of China in choosing retaliation over negotiation.”
Trump also said in an August 25 social media post that “The United States is giving serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don’t expect to doing [sic] much business with Ontario any longer. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
The prime minister of Canada, Mark Carney, who served on Harvard’s governing Board of Overseers from 2021 to March 2025 and who recognized a state of Palestine in September 2025, visited China in January 2026. After the visit, China and Canada issued a joint statement saying that “The two sides committed to advancing the Canada-China new Strategic Partnership” and “committed to strengthening the economic and trade partnership between Canada and China.”
The Palestine reference is not an incidental issue but is increasingly front-and-center as China appears to see it as a way to sow division within the U.S. and between the U.S. and American allies in the Middle East. The king of Jordan, Abdullah II, visited Beijing August 24, and President Xi Jinping went so far as to lecture him about the Palestinians, declaring, according to a readout of the meeting issued by China, “The Palestinian question is the core of the Middle East issue.”
There’s been speculation, though no formal announcement, of a visit by Xi to Canada in September, when the Chinese premier is also expected to visit the U.S. The Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, who is also a member of the political bureau of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, visited Canada in May and met again with the Canadian foreign minister, Anita Anand, in Manila in July. The Chinese account of the meeting noted, “In the first half of this year, bilateral trade volume grew by 16 percent year-on-year, with Canadian exports to China increasing by 23.3 percent in particular. Canadian agricultural products such as canola and beef have returned to the Chinese market, and Chinese electric vehicles have entered the Canadian market … Anita Anand stated that the relationship with China is one of Canada’s most valued bilateral relationships.”
Anand posted to social media after the meeting, “China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi and I met in Manila to advance work toward a new Strategic Partnership between our two countries.”
A fellow at the Hudson Institute who served in the State Department in the first Trump administration, Mary Kissel, noted the China-Canada angle in an August 24 social media post. “Remarkable to watch media / financial analysts talk about the U.S.-Canada trade spat. No acknowledgment that Canada is siding with a totalitarian regime that’s actively helping Iran & Russia target Americans & our allies. Seems like a pretty big part of the story to me,” Kissel wrote. She didn’t directly mention her former colleagues at the Wall Street Journal editorial page, who called it “the dumbest trade war” that “makes no political or economic sense.”
A Fox Business account by Amanda Macias reported, “U.S. officials fear steel and aluminum made in China or elsewhere could be processed in Canada or Mexico and then enter the United States as regional content.” If Canadian steel and aluminum are actually Chinese steel and aluminum in disguise, then nothing would protect the American defense industry if China stopped shipments as a way of undercutting America.
Canada on August 25 announced tariffs of “15, 25 and 50 per cent,” effective September 8, on imports from the U.S. That will make Chinese goods relatively more attractive to Canadian consumers.
Before becoming prime minister of Canada, Carney worked at Goldman Sachs and was governor of the Bank of England, which is Great Britain’s central bank. He was also U.N. Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance. In a January 2026 speech at Davos, he said that while “American hegemony, in particular, helped provide public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security and support for frameworks for resolving disputes,” the “bargain no longer works.”
“Canada was amongst the first to hear the wake-up call, leading us to fundamentally shift our strategic posture,” Carney said. “We are rapidly diversifying abroad. … we’ve concluded new strategic partnerships with China and Qatar.”
Canada may call it “diversifying,” but from Washington, for a NATO ally to be crafting a “strategic partnership” with Beijing looks like a betrayal. There may eventually be a climbdown in this particular tariff flap. But the underlying irritant will outlast Trump. What it’s about in the end isn’t a Trump temper tantrum but American interest in not having a Chinese client state on our northern border.
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