The NFL is officially back! All 32 teams have now played exactly one game. Yet, people are going to act like that one out of 17 games is plenty of information to inform us about how the rest of the season will go.
It’s not. Like, at all.
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There’s arguably no bigger overreaction week on the entire sports calendar than the week between Week 1 in the NFL and Week 2 in the NFL. After months of practically zero information, we finally saw teams on the field playing games that matter.
But we must remember that Week 1 accounts for 5.9% of the entire season.
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People in the sports media are going to arrive at wild conclusions based on that minuscule sample size. What if you hired a home inspector for a house you wanted to buy and the inspector came back and said, “Hey, here’s 5.9% of my report on this house and nothing more. You ready to make an offer?”
But here we are, every season, making decisions based on less than 6% of the information. Nonsense. Let’s take a look at some of the vast overreactions seen across the landscape and break them down.
The Rams are going to miss the playoffs
Of course, this is a major overreaction. The Rams entered the season as favorites to win the Super Bowl, rightfully so, and it seems like everyone is quickly jumping off the bandwagon. Rich Eisen Show producer and on-air contributor Chris Brockman predicted the Rams’ “dream team” would follow the 2011 Eagles and miss the playoffs.
There are two problems with this overreaction. The first, and most obvious one, is that it was one game against a good divisional opponent in Australia. Honestly, the Rams were way too cocky going into the game and traveling across the globe 28 hours prior to kickoff was a clear miscalculation. The 49ers went to Australia a week in advance to adapt to the weather and time change.
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The second is that the Rams weren’t really at full strength. Aaron Donald didn’t play, and Myles Garrett played through a lingering knee issue and is now out for at least four games. Los Angeles didn’t generate much pass rush and didn’t sack Brock Purdy a single time. That’s not going to continue throughout the season.
Also, sometimes a team can get caught drinking its own Kool-Aid. No team entered the season with more hype, with some calling them a “super team” where a Super Bowl seemed like the only option. If anything, Week 1’s disastrous result might have been the best thing that could have happened. The Rams got an early wake-up call and I expect them to bounce back in a big way over the next few games.
The Bears offense is going to be historic
The Bears obviously looked great in Week 1, dropping a team-record 59 points in a season opener. Caleb Williams showed off his athleticism and playmaking abilities throughout the afternoon, and Bears fans have reasons to be excited. Bucky Brooks posited that Chicago might average 40 points per game, which would easily set the record for points in a season.
But let’s pump the brakes just a tad, shall we? First, the Panthers defense isn’t exactly a juggernaut. The team gave up some big numbers last season, including 42 to New England and 40 to Buffalo. In addition, Week 1 scoring was up big across the board. Teams don’t play their starters much during the preseason which puts defenses at a big disadvantage. A lot of these guys have barely hit any opponents at full speed since last season and practices have gotten much less physical due to concussion and injury concerns.
Chicago also benefited from several positive luck factors. The Panthers turned the ball over three times and committed 11 penalties for 84 yards. The Bears converted all four red zone drives into touchdowns and picked up 10-of-14 third downs. Yes, that’s what good offenses do, but that ridiculous efficiency is unsustainable over 17 games.
Then, there was the large number of big plays. Three different Bears (Williams, D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai) all had at least one carry of at least 29 yards and four different pass catchers (Kalif Raymond, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Cole Kmet) had at least one reception that went for 20+ yards. Again, great offenses produce explosive plays, but this was an outlier. The Bears are going to be good, and the offense is going to score points, but we shouldn’t set the expectation at 40 points scored per game.
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The Mike McDaniel–Justin Herbert pairing was a mistake
The Chargers looked terrible in a Week 1 upset loss against the Arizona Cardinals as nine-point home favorites. The Cardinals blocked a punt, intercepted Justin Herbert and held Los Angeles to just 117 yards of offense in the second half. Mike McDaniel’s offense was supposed to unlock even more from Herbert, but it produced only two scoring drives, and one was aided by a 48-yard pass-interference penalty.
That kind of debut makes it tempting to declare the McDaniel-Herbert pairing a failure after one game.
To be clear, I’m not declaring that this team is destined for great things, but burying them after Week 1 is also a mistake. McDaniel’s offense is unique, and it takes time to get used to, especially for offensive linemen. The Chargers have two stud tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, but are breaking in an entirely new interior offensive line, including a rookie center. They made a lot of mistakes, but they will improve as the season goes along.
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Remember that Tua Tagovailoa thrived under McDaniel for multiple seasons and there’s no reason to think that Herbert can’t have more success than Tagovailoa. I do have concerns about the team’s receiver corps, since the Dolphins had Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but Ladd McConkey is great and if they can get moderate production from the likes of Tre Harris and Quentin Johnston along with contributions from tight ends David Njoku and Oronde Gadsden, the offense will be fine.
That all being said, the Chargers clearly had too much hype coming into the season. While I don’t think they’re nearly as bad as they looked against Arizona, this doesn’t appear to be a team that will seriously challenge for AFC supremacy, either. The Chargers might have been overhyped, but one bad Sunday doesn’t make McDaniel the wrong coordinator for Herbert.
To close, I’m going to share a few overreactions that might not be overreactions at all:
- The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals are the main AFC title contenders.
- The Green Bay Packers should be very, very concerned about losing to Carson Wentz and the Vikings.
- The Giants are the best team in the NFC East.
- The race to the bottom for the first pick in the NFL Draft is going to be just as exciting as the playoff race (I’m looking at you Dolphins, Browns and Titans).
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OK, that’s it for Week 1. Remember that we’ve still got 94% of the season to play, so don’t get too excited or too disappointed. Unless you’re a Dolphins, Browns or Titans fan, in which case you guys should start thinking about 2027.
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