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Are we playing with the old playbook or a new playbook in the midterm elections this fall?
That’s unclear. It’s hard to determine simply because we’ve seen so much that’s “new” in politics lately.
Norms are cast aside. The American system quaked to its core in recent years. You’ve witnessed an American president win the election by prevailing in the Electoral College but losing the popular vote. To have that happen twice in 16 years (2000 and 2016) is astonishing, considering the fact that such an outcome only unfolded on three occasions before.
You then had a president impeached twice yet return to office a few years later. There was the Capitol riot as arguing continued about the 2020 election.
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If this is the old playbook, Democrats likely light up the scoreboard in November. The party of the president typically loses about 25 seats in a president’s first midterm. Midterm elections are frequently a referendum on the president. That’s why many Republicans are trying to keep President Donald Trump at arm’s length, considering that his polling numbers are anywhere from the mid-30s to 40% on a good day. Gas prices are high. Grocery prices are skyrocketing. The war in Iran lingers. There’s a trade war with one of America’s best allies.
On the old playbook, this portends a disaster for the GOP in this fall’s midterms.
But what if we’re using the new playbook?
President Trump — and sometimes Republicans aligned with him — have shown a remarkable resilience to defy political gravity and norms. Control of the House could come down to just a few seats. What if there are questions about election security and the validity of who won and lost? There’s redistricting. On paper, Republicans probably redrew about five to six seats nationwide in their favor.
If things are tight, we might not know which party wins the House on election night. Perhaps a few days down the road — if not later. That is, unless it’s a Democratic blowout.
And remember what we said a few moments ago about the president’s party losing so many seats in that first midterm? Yes, in a way, this is President Trump’s “first midterm.” But not really. He experienced a midterm in 2018. Not that things went in the GOP’s favor that year. There’s no contemporary data on how the party of a president might perform after he’s been out of office and rallied to victory a few years later.
Also, the sheer reduction by both parties of seats which are in play mitigates political “waves” which crash across the political shoreline in House midterm races. Think 1994 and 2010 for Republicans. 2018 for Democrats. Thus, even though many of the factors favor the Democrats, the possibility remains it could be tough for the party to flip the House.
In 2018, the Democrats’ carried an approval rating of 44%. For this time around, it’s 37%. That rivals polling related to the president. In 2018, voters had had enough of President Trump and wanted a change. But because of the polling parity this year, it’s not so obvious that voters are so turned off by President Trump that they automatically gravitate to the Democrats.
Here’s another factor: turnout.
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President Trump has worked hard to tell voters that he’s “on the ballot” this fall. That cuts two ways. President Trump’s presence on the ballot has historically driven people to the polls. In 2016, 60.1% of registered voters showed up. In 2020, an eye-popping 66.4% of all voters cast ballots. And in 2024, 64.3% of those registered to vote did so.
But considering the president’s unpopularity, the cognizance of voters that he’s “on the ballot” could also deter them from turning out. At least those who previously supported him. And those impacts ricochet down to House races. The president’s track record at turning out independent voters in races that count wasn’t great down ballot even as he won the White House in 2024.
Consider that, in the 2018 midterms, 50.1% of registered voters materialized. Just 46.1% voted in the 2022 midterms. It was 36.1% in the 2014 midterms — 41% in the historic 2010 midterms where Republicans won a record 63 House seats.
This “Trump on the ballot” initiative might not resound with voters. Especially since the president conceded — en route to his midterm convention in Dallas — that gas prices wouldn’t decrease until after the election. He also said the U.S. is stuck with the war in Iran through the midterms.
So, how do we know what to anticipate in November?
It’s really hard to read if there’s not a clear wave coming. The best way to postulate control of the House is by going race to race. And that is a painstaking process.
For instance, will Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., have a district in which to run? Missouri Republicans tried to draw Cleaver out of his district earlier this year. Then a court ruled last week that the Show-Me State must use the old congressional districts, likely meaning that Cleaver was safe. Then another judge ruled that voters already cast ballots in primaries. So, the new maps were back, and Cleaver may be out.
All of this less than two months before the election.
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Is there a groundswell for Democrats in Iowa where the Senate seat and governor’s mansion are in jeopardy for Republicans? If that’s the case, Democrats might have a shot of claiming at least two if not three seats there: Republican Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn and maybe the seat that Rep. Ashley Hinson is vacating in her quest to become a senator.
How about Ohio? There are competitive gubernatorial and Senate contests. Does a Democratic surge boost Rep. Greg Landsman, D-Ohio? Do the accusations of spousal and child abuse bounce embattled Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio., in what is otherwise a relatively safe Republican seat?
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, clung to her seat by fewer than 1,000 votes two years ago. But that was when President Trump carried the Buckeye State by 11 points and Kaptur’s district. Redistricting actually turned Kaptur’s turf slightly more in her favor. But the 80-year-old Kaptur was in a car wreck in August, inhibiting her ability to campaign. Is that a factor?
How well do Democrats perform in Virginia? Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., faces former Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., who she vanquished in 2022. Could former Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Va., who won in a 2008 upset in a differently-drawn district and promptly lost in 2010, unseat Rep. John McGuire, R-Va.?
Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, is retiring. Former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage is running for Golden’s seat. Does LePage benefit from Democratic chaos in the effort to unseat Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine? After all, President Trump won one of Maine’s three electoral votes in 2024, capturing that congressional district over former Vice President Kamala Harris.
We could bounce around the map, district to district, all day like this. But sans a wave, that’s what you must do to properly filet the House races.
Most conventional arrows point in the direction of Democrats winning the House this fall. Yet it probably shouldn’t be this close.
That’s why you have to go by the playbook.
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The only question is if this is the old playbook or new playbook?
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