For years, preppers have been mocked for telling people to keep extra food, water, medicine and a way to get information when the power goes out. Now the British government is essentially telling its own citizens to do exactly that while rewriting a government war plan that hasn’t received a major overhaul in more than two decades.
Britain is accelerating work on its classified Government War Book, a collection of plans designed to keep the country functioning during a major international conflict or national emergency. At the same time, households are being encouraged to keep bottled water, canned food, medicine, flashlights, batteries, radios and backup power supplies at home.
Government officials are careful to point out that the recommendations aren’t exclusively about war. The same preparations would help during cyberattacks, prolonged blackouts, flooding, water outages and other disasters.
Fair enough. But look at what is happening around the world right now and it’s hard to ignore why old Cold War-style contingency planning is suddenly becoming important again.
This Isn’t Happening in a Vacuum
Britain’s War Book deals with things like maintaining government operations, protecting communications, distributing food and keeping transportation and other essential services functioning during a major crisis.
Chief Secretary Darren Jones put the same line to MPs: “The government will do all it can and we are well prepared – but we can all play our part to keep ourselves and our loved ones safe. This campaign will help the public to take small but important steps to be prepared in case of emergencies and disruption – be that severe weather or a cyber-attack, which can impact access to power, water, or phone signal.”
Those aren’t conspiracy theory concerns anymore.
The war between Russia and Ukraine continues to expand into an energy war, with both sides attacking oil refineries, fuel facilities and other infrastructure. Russia recently launched hundreds of drones against Ukraine while Ukraine continued striking Russian oil infrastructure. The attacks have become important enough to global fuel markets that President Trump has publicly pushed for both countries to stop targeting energy facilities.
European governments are also increasingly worried about the possibility of the conflict spilling beyond Ukraine. Poland has warned that Russia could attempt drone or missile attacks against NATO territory while making them appear accidental, and European governments are spending heavily on air defense, drones and military preparedness.
Nobody can say with certainty that this becomes World War III. But governments clearly aren’t treating a wider war as some ridiculous internet conspiracy anymore.
They actively are planning for it.
Then There Is Iran and the Global Oil Crisis
At the same time, the Middle East has turned into another enormous pressure point for the global economy.
Oil has been trading above $100 a barrel as attacks and disruptions hit some of the most important energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the world. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, one of the routes designed to help move oil around the Strait of Hormuz, has been knocked offline following attacks, while continued instability around Hormuz and the Red Sea has kept energy markets on edge.
And the situation is still developing.
On September 19, Houthi forces claimed missile and drone attacks against targets in Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco facility in Yanbu, while Saudi authorities issued warnings after explosions and smoke were reported around Riyadh. The attacks come amid the broader confrontation involving Iran, the United States, Israel and Iranian-backed forces throughout the region.
The official count only registers a station as short if it has no petrol at all or no diesel at all, so a station out of one grade but holding another is not counted, meaning the real shortage is much larger. French diesel averages €2.406 a litre, about $10.45 a gallon.
Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in history.
This matters far beyond what you pay to fill your truck.
Modern civilization runs on diesel.
Diesel moves food from farms to processing plants. It moves products to warehouses. It powers tractors, construction equipment, generators and much of the trucking industry. Oil also feeds into plastics, fertilizer, chemicals, manufacturing and countless other parts of the supply chain.
When energy prices explode, those costs eventually work their way into almost everything you buy.
And we are already getting a look at what an actual fuel supply crunch looks like in Europe.
In France, the government’s own fuel tracker reported Saturday morning that 11% of the country’s roughly 9,900 monitored gas stations were experiencing a shortage of either gasoline or diesel — roughly one out of every nine stations nationwide. The situation is worse in some areas: 16% of stations in Grand Est are affected, 15% in Pays de la Loire, 14% in Occitanie and 13% in Centre-Val de Loire.
And these aren’t stations that are merely running low on one obscure grade. Under the government’s methodology, a station is counted as having a gasoline shortage only when all of the gasoline grades it normally carries are unavailable, or when diesel itself is unavailable.
That is exactly why the oil situation matters far beyond the price flashing on the sign outside your local gas station. Once supply disruptions start hitting physical availability, the problem moves from expensive fuel to trucks that can’t run, deliveries that get delayed and food and other necessities that become harder and more expensive to move.
This Is How Supply Problems Start
People hear the phrase “World War III” and immediately picture nuclear missiles flying across the planet.
That’s one possibility governments obviously have to consider, but it isn’t the only way a major international conflict could hurt ordinary people.
A serious conflict could mean cyberattacks against utilities, attacks on pipelines and refineries, shipping interruptions, electrical outages, fuel shortages, disrupted trucking networks or problems getting food into major cities.
Britain’s updated planning specifically includes cyberattacks, sabotage and coordinated attacks against critical infrastructure. Its public preparedness campaign tells households to be capable of surviving several days without normal services.
The British government’s own preparedness website recommends keeping nonperishable food, medicine, flashlights, radios, portable battery banks and bottled water. For drinking alone, it cites a survival minimum of roughly 2.5 to 3 liters of water per person per day.
That should tell you something. Governments know that when systems fail, they cannot immediately take care of everybody.
And it doesn’t require some permanent nationwide food shortage for things to get ugly. Interrupt trucking for a few days, combine it with panic buying, fuel shortages or a prolonged blackout, and local stores can get wiped out remarkably fast.
If a serious shortage lasted longer, you could eventually start seeing rationing, theft, civil unrest and potentially food riots in the hardest-hit areas. That isn’t a prediction that those things are about to happen. It is exactly the kind of cascading failure emergency planners are supposed to think about before it happens.
The Government Is Preparing. You Should Pay Attention.
Britain rewriting a 22-year-old War Book does not mean somebody inside the government has a secret date circled on the calendar for World War III. But pretending it means nothing would be equally foolish. In fact, as we pointed out yesterday, we seem to be headed for a Global Recession, and possible supply chain shutdowns and Food Shortages.
Russia and Ukraine are attacking energy infrastructure. European governments are preparing for a possible wider confrontation with Russia. The Middle East is threatening some of the world’s most important oil infrastructure and shipping lanes. Oil remains around $100 a barrel. Saudi energy infrastructure has been attacked. Cyberattacks and sabotage have become legitimate national-security concerns.
And now governments are dusting off civil-defense plans and telling their citizens to stock food and water.
The entire point of preparedness is to have what you need before everybody else suddenly realizes there might be a problem.
Food that you already eat. Water. Medicine. Backup lighting. Batteries. A radio. Some stored fuel where it can be done legally and safely. Cash for situations where payment systems are unavailable. And enough basic supplies that you aren’t dependent on a functioning grocery store every 48 hours.
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