As a fan, I’m bummed that football is over until Thursday, but as a sports bettor, I’m happy to see it go after a brutal NFL week. Rather than focus on the bad, let’s look toward the good things happening today.
We have the MLB playoffs starting today, the NHL has its regular season beginning, and the WNBA has more playoff games. It will be a great day, and it starts early with the Phillies and Braves playing at 2 p.m. ET. However, I have my eyes set on the game between the Red Sox and Yankees, starting at 8 p.m. ET.
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The Boston Red Sox found a way to make it to the postseason after a disastrous start to the season. They were just 9-17 on Friday, April 24, and that was their fourth straight loss, all to AL East opponents. They ended up firing their manager, but things really didn’t improve all that much. They were 29-43 around the middle of June. Then, almost like a light switch, they found a way to start winning.
From June 25 until the end of the season, the team went 55-29. Over the course of a full 162-game season, that would give them almost 110 wins. It was one of the best runs in their history.
Now they have the tough task of making it worthwhile against the Yankees. In order to try to get the first game of the series, they are sending out Payton Tolle. For the season, Tolle went 9-6 with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. He isn’t one of the more well-known arms in the rotation, but he did turn in a solid performance. He was better on the road than he was at home with a 2.50 road ERA and a .202 opposing batting average. He was also spectacular against the Yankees this season, going 13.0 innings in two starts and allowing just four hits and one earned run while striking out 18 hitters.
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The Yankees didn’t have any super hot streaks. Instead, they used a consistently successful approach this year, and even weathered the storm when there were injuries. The Yankees ended the year with a 93-68 record, and they were 12 games above average at home. This season saw the Yankees have success without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for a large portion of the year. They got great performances from guys like Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger instead. Rice led the team in homers and RBIs, turning in the best performance of his career.
Speaking of guys who turned in the best performance of their career, Cam Schlittler is likely to be the American League Cy Young winner. Schlittler went 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP for the year. He was dominant in every facet of the pitching game. However, if you were going to get to Schlittler, it was probably at Yankee Stadium instead of on the road.
He had 16 starts, one fewer than on the road, and had a 2.98 ERA at home, allowing 28 earned runs over 84.2 innings. For reference, he allowed 14 earned runs over 109 innings on the road.
Schlittler was also great against the Red Sox this season, holding them to just two solo homers in 24.1 innings against him this season. That’s good for a 0.74 ERA in four starts. With both of these pitchers, we can see how good they’ve been all season, but especially against their opponent. We will see what happens and if they can keep this going in the postseason. I personally believe we can and see this game going under 6.5 runs.
I think this is likely to be a low-scoring game, but I don’t have much confidence in either side. Give me the under 6.5.
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