Cold weather is approaching and the U.S. is projected to have record-setting production of natural gas and healthy storage levels to help protect the market against possible shifts in winter weather that could otherwise strain supply and squeeze consumers.
FOX Business exclusively viewed the Natural Gas Supply Association’s (NGSA) 2026-27 winter outlook, which forecasts that U.S. dry gas production is projected to hit a record 112.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day, with high storage levels at 3.88 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf).
Dena Wiggins, president and CEO of the NGSA, told FOX Business that the “U.S. is heading into winter from a very strong supply position” based on those production and storage levels as the winter heating season approaches.
“That combination gives the market a strong cushion heading into colder months. Production is expected to remain robust even as demand grows, including from LNG exports and the power sector,” Wiggins added.
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The report notes that increases in projected demand are almost entirely led mostly by rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which are projected to rise 2.3 Bcf per day year over year, as well as long-term structural needs to power expanding data center capacity.
Residential, commercial and industrial usage is expected to remain steady under normal weather assumptions, leaving LNG exports and power burn as the primary drivers of total winter demand.
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“Of course, weather remains the biggest variable. A prolonged period of extreme cold can tighten any market,” Wiggins said. “But based on the fundamentals we’re seeing today, the U.S. enters this winter well supplied and in a strong position to meet expected demand.”
“Weather is always the biggest wild card. A milder winter would mean less heating demand and generally put additional downward pressure on prices. A colder winter would increase demand and could put upward pressure on prices, particularly during periods of sustained extreme cold,” she added.
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NGSA’s report said U.S. natural gas maintains a cost advantage in comparison to Europe and Asia, though infrastructure remains a key constraint as near-capacity interstate pipelines signal a need for infrastructure investment to support future load growth.
It also noted gas supplies about 40% of U.S. electricity generation, and NGSA said it remains the “most scalable resource for meeting grid reliability needs and expanding digital infrastructure.”
“Looking ahead, the biggest question isn’t whether we have enough natural gas, it’s whether we have the infrastructure to get it where it’s needed,” Wiggins said.
“You can have abundant supply, but if there isn’t enough pipeline capacity to move that gas to homes, power plants and businesses, consumer prices in constrained regions can be impacted,” she added.
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