2028 already? Off-year elections provide crucial test for Trump and the Democrats

I hate the fact that I’m writing about 2028. You probably hate it even more.

But there is a rhythm to off-year elections, and it goes like this:

New Jersey (very blue) and Virginia (blue-ish) get an enormous amount of attention. 

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President Donald Trump makes news every day, sometimes several times a day, but he has been MIA in terms of in-person campaigning, having decided that the thing stinks and he doesn’t want the foul smell associated with him. 

Let’s face it. Unless you live across the Potomac in Virginia, or down by Norfolk or Newport News, did you have the faintest idea who was running for governor? (It’s Abigail Spanberger.) 

Here’s the irony. They get all this coverage because everyone loves a horse race. But, only two or three national reporters will go back in six months to see how they’re faring. Campaigning is exciting, governing is boring. I used to cover state and local officials, so I know whereof I speak.

By the way, Virginia has a stupid one-term-and-you’re-out rule. If people think Republican Glenn Youngkin is doing a good job running the commonwealth, why shouldn’t they have a chance to vote for him again? Makes no sense.

Despite his absence from the trail, Trump (who endorsed Andrew Cuomo at the last minute) is the issue in every race — who can stand up to him, who can blame him for rising prices, the government shutdown and the demolition of the East Wing. 

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It’s kind of a perfect storm for the Democrats, and the president has made no attempt to meet with them, having assumed that Chuck Schumer and company would cave long before this. Instead, they broke through with a message about soaring premiums for Obamacare, which Trump criticizes but has not proposed his own health care plan in either term.

Next up is the midterms, where I presume the president will go all out. The GOP has avoided some of the crazier nominees of the past (such as Christine O’Donnell, who said gay people have a psychological disorder, lied about her background, and later declared, “I have dabbled into witchcraft.”)

The Democrats have a shot at taking control of the House, given the Republicans’ razor-thin margin, and that would fundamentally change Trump’s final two years. In the Senate, they have virtually no chance.

Which brings us back to 2028. (I know, I know.) Even if Trump still controls everything, he is deemed a lame duck the day after the midterms. Of course, he’ll still dominate the news.

Lately, Trump has been talking up his strong bench, mentioning Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. This undercuts the assumption that the vice president would be his natural heir. They are said to be friends, but Rubio, who holds about nine jobs now, has far more government experience and foreign policy expertise, though he’s had to drop some of his previous positions to satisfy the boss. I suspect that Trump — I’ve been saying for months he wouldn’t run again–will pick the order of the ticket.

Two months after the midterms, the battle for the Democratic nomination gets under way. It could be Calif. Governor Gavin Newsom, former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel or AOC, who’s more in tune with an increasingly left-wing party, and a bunch of governors you’ve never heard of.

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Much depends on whether people are burned out on Trumpian chaos by that time, not to mention the state of the economy. Then again, Barack Obama had given one rousing convention speech, but who expected him to beat the Clinton machine and win two terms?

The white-hot media spotlight will shift to the Democratic contest while checking on the Vance/Rubio pecking order. Trump can make news by snapping his fingers – for instance, after saying he’d restore 50% of the SNAP food program once two judges’ rulings he now says he won’t fund it at all, as a way of ratcheting up the pressure. He said most of the 42 million people on SNAP are “largely Democrats,” then quickly added that party doesn’t matter. It’s another pressure tactic,  

Actually, of the 30 states that Trump carried last year, 25 of them are more reliant on food stamps than the national average.

Trump’s interview with Norah O’Donnell of CBS, now under new management, drew 13.2 million viewers, the highest rating since days after the Capitol riot.

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So that brings us to 2028. That wasn’t so painful, was it?

Uh, was it?