Brandan Buck of the CATO Institute recently wrote a piece on why it’s a bad idea to use ‘Special Forces‘ against the cartels. I assume when Mr. Buck says Special Forces, he means America’s special operations troops as a whole and not just the Army’s Green berets. He and I mostly agree. I think using Spec Ops to eliminate the cartel would be expensive, unproductive, and draw us into another forever war. A war where we might have all the watches, but the cartel has the time.
Where Mr. Buck and I disagree is his statement about the cartels being a ‘near-peer’ force to American Special Operations. Cartel violence is getting closer and closer to the border and becoming even more vicious. It’s true the cartels are well-armed and violent, but they would get smashed by American special operations forces. The cartel would quickly learn why the United States doesn’t have universal healthcare.
The Cartels and Their Weaponry
Mr. Buck points out that the cartel has armored vehicles, crew-served weapons, and the ability to use IEDs and UAVs carrying explosives. He also seems to state that cartels have surface-to-air missiles. In the link he provides, the USA Today story doesn’t seem definitive, but it’s a rumor, and let’s assume they do.
That doesn’t make them near peers. Their armored vehicles are armored trucks, not tanks and APCs. Their crew-served weapons are an impressive array of belt-fed machine guns and even RPGs and grenade launchers. Some of the cartels even have military training. That’s true, but that doesn’t make them a near-peer, especially to our best and brightest.
A picture of a soldier tells a lot. You can get an idea of his experience, training, and overall discipline. We have hundreds of pictures of cartel troops, which aren’t impressive. Some have body armor that looks as clean as Howard Hughes’ house. Clean gear means they haven’t trained in it.
Second, their plate carriers, belts, and general loadout look like a Wish.com pulled all over them. There are pouches everywhere and seemingly in nonsensical positions. They seem to believe more is better than less. The nonsensical loadouts also show they aren’t training with their gear.
Admittedly, their weapons vary. Many have modern rifles, but a quarter of them don’t have sights. The other quarter mounts optics to their handguards, and the last half might have a competent setup if it features a fixed carry handle and FSB. They certainly aren’t training that hard or shooting that much.
The Cartels – More Than Gear
Why do we have so many pictures of cartel members in gear? Because they have no concept of SIGINT or OPSEC. There are cartel Instagram pages a competent intelligence analyst could scrape for days. Say what you want about the Taliban, but they seemed pretty damn humble compared to the cartel. They post their little videos and pictures as a means to intimidate others but are giving away a lot of intel to a potential enemy.
Cartel soldiers do the job for money. Say what you want about the Taliban, but at least they had a belief system. Sure, they got paid, but a lot of them were true believers. How many cartel soldiers will pick up a gun when the money stops flowing?
Spec Ops and the Cartel
Let’s send the CIA, DEVGRU, CAG, SF, SEALS, and some Air Force PJs and MARSOC Marines at the cartel. The cartel and their fancy equipment aren’t much of a match. Your armored truck is great until a drone you can’t see or hear puts a Hellfire into it. Your crew serves. It doesn’t matter when a guy puts a laser you can’t see in your position, and a missile erases it from the face of the earth.
Your Instagram post leads a group of dudes with beards and Multicam to your bedroom, and a black bag is put over your face. Your money to pay troops starts to dry up as fentanyl and meth labs are destroyed.
Guys with the world’s best nightvision are coming in and cutting your balls off. In the first week of fighting, the cartel will quickly learn that they don’t stand a chance at night and will likely only fight during the day. This leaves ample opportunity for American forces to take advantage of the night for all sorts of situations.
The cartel forces regularly get their asses kicked by the Mexican Marines. Mexican Marines are tough dudes but don’t have the funding, training, or 23 years of experience with the Global War on Terror that American Special Operations has.
Not So Near Peer
The Taliban was toppled in days by US Forces, and the Iraqi Army was done in a month. I imagine the cartel would face the same fate. They would have massive losses very early and very quickly. Then, it’d develop into a quagmire we couldn’t solve. Ten years and three trillion dollars later, we’d leave, and the cartel would rise once again.
I don’t think military action would solve the problem, but I don’t think the cartel counts as a near-peer organization.
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