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It didn’t grab many national headlines, but the decision by the Wisconsin Supreme Court not to hear two lawsuits aiming to redraw the battleground state’s eight congressional districts may have a sizable impact on the 2026 midterm elections.
The liberal-majority court late last month, without explanation, refused to hear challenges brought by Democrats seeking to alter the current maps, which could have put two of the state’s six congressional districts currently held by Republicans in play.
The move by Wisconsin’s highest court appears to benefit Republicans, as they aim to defend their fragile House majority in next year’s elections.
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That’s because Republican Reps. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District and Bryan Steil in the 1st CD — the state’s most competitive House seats — are likely safer without redrawing the maps.
“Every seat matters in the fight for the House of Representatives when all it takes is a three-seat gain to flip control, and a new map in Wisconsin could have helped Democrats in at least two seats, the 1st and 3rd Districts,” Jacob Rubashkin of the non-partisan political handicapper Inside Elections told Fox News.
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Rubashkin noted that “it’s a setback for Democrats, but certainly not an insurmountable one, as the party has plenty of offensive opportunities around the country and even in Wisconsin, where we still see the 3rd District as one of the most competitive districts. Depending on the political environment and candidate quality, the 1st might be competitive as well, even under the current lines.”
Democrats are convinced they can still pick up both seats.
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“It’s already clear that Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil are running scared because they cannot defend their records — whether it’s their votes to cut Medicaid while giving tax breaks to billionaires, or their 100% support for sweeping tariffs that are raising costs on Wisconsin families. Wisconsin voters see that Van Orden and Steil sold them out, and they’ll fire them next year,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) spokesperson Katie Smith told Fox News.
But the rival National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) disagrees.
“The bipartisan rejection of the radical Democrats’ desperate and politically motivated attempt to redraw the map in their favor offers a strong preview of how Wisconsin voters will reject the Democrats’ out-of-touch and radical agenda next year at the ballot box,” NRCC spokesman Zach Bannon said in a statement to Fox News.
Rubashkin noted that while Wisconsin isn’t changing its maps, the congressional district lines may be altered in other states ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“Ultimately, while we expect a few redistricting changes in Ohio, Utah and potentially a few other states, the overall picture remains unchanged: Republicans are looking to buck history in an expensive and nationwide slog for 218 seats,” he added.
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