History – mark my words – repeats itself. Perhaps because human nature never changes, we often see the same error twice, similar resolution. Donald Trump is on track to secure peace between Russia and Ukraine, just as Theodore Roosevelt did in 1905 between Russia and Japan.
Have you ever played chess, or maybe poker, whist, gin-rummy, crazy eights, spades or hearts? The Russians – and Ukrainians – play a game called Durak, which means “idiot.” The point: You play a game many times, and over time you begin to see patterns, how one player reacts to another.
The same thing happens in geopolitics: patterns repeat themselves. While few realize it – and historians are too often ignored – these patterns produce repeat reactions, reactions to the reactions, and outcomes, some good, some bad, many predictable.
Odd how close past events are to now. In February 1904, a war broke out between Russia and Japan, with Japan the aggressor. Like today’s Russian aggression in Ukraine, that war – 120 years ago – was about land, control of territory, and, in particular, access to a warm water port.
Japan was – there is no dispute – the aggressor. They knew Russian supply lines were stretched, had had even challenged China in Korea ten years prior. They were a belligerent, took Russia by surprise.
That war had raged for a year, before the American President, Theodore Roosevelt, took it on himself to end it. The basis went back years, just as the Russia- Ukraine war does. Japan had belligerently taken the Liaodong Peninsula from China in 1894. Europe forced Japan to give it back.
Japan resented that. China, rather ironically, leased the peninsula to Russia, which needed a warm water port – not to the south as with Ukraine, but to the far east. Japan, sensing Russian unpreparedness and an opportunity, attacked the Russian fleet at Port Arthur. Thus began that war.
In February 2022, 118 years after Japan attacked Russia to cut off their warm water port in the far east, Russia – again ironically – attacked Ukraine, seeking a warm water port in the south. The Russified portion of eastern Ukraine notwithstanding, that port matters to Russia’s fleet, as in 1904.
In 1905, a Republican American President, Theodore Roosevelt, realized that the Russo-Japanese war could escalate, widen the disruption of trade around the world, including with Europe and the US. He also realized the conflict was, with Russia getting the short stick, in a deadlock.
Accordingly, speaking first with one, then the other, he invited both counties to peace talks in Portsmouth, New Hampshire – on the Maine border. Russia came licking their wounds, literally and figuratively, having suffered recent defeats at Mukden and Tsushima. They had little leverage.
Theodore Roosevelt offered honor, US recognition of both countries, and hope of a – naturally difficult, hard for both sides – peace. He persisted. He understood peace was worth the effort.]
Both countries were, by that time, financially pressed and fighting a war of attrition. Unrest was developing in Russia, just as it is gathering in Ukraine today. Japan, the aggressor, was strained.
Roosevelt saw an opportunity. Pride and politics being what it is, he knew peace would be hard, but opened the door to it at Portsmouth. He did not invite the Europeans, or any other interested party. Instead, he worked to get both sides to see peace, even with loss of full victory, was worth securing.
That peace, like the one Trump hopes to secure between Ukraine and Russia, was hard to craft, and Japan – the aggressor – ultimately was allowed to retain much of what they had taken, while they had to acknowledge a more permanent peace with Russia, one that lasted for some time.
So, what are the lessons? First, ending wars is hard, always involves pride and sacrifice, but someone has to start the discussion. TR did, and Trump has. Second, the first round is scrappy, neither side wanting to give in, and populations in distress, suffering, demanding more.
Finally, the outcome – like the inevitability of death and taxes – becomes apparent, and worth working to achieve. Wars do not last forever, no war ever has or ever will. The initiative, as in many things, must be taken, persuasion and pressure used to secure concessions, a deal crafted.
Is Donald Trump doing that now? Yes. Did TR do that in 1905, to exhaustion and until both sides accepted peace over war? Yes. Anything further? Yes, that peace lasted until the first World War, which was started by Germany, neither Russia nor Japan. And TR? He won the Nobel Peace Prize.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).
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