Prediction markets are ‘highly susceptible to gaming,’ Fairness & Accuracy in Reporting’s Jim Naureckas told the Free Beacon
CNN’s new partnership with the prediction market Kalshi has drawn criticism from unlikely sources: Liberal media watchdogs have come out in force to condemn the left-wing cable network’s foray into predictive gambling.
CNN announced Tuesday it would integrate Kalshi data on politics, news, culture, and weather into its reporting, including through analysis, fact-checking, and even a real-time ticker, a collaboration the network says will give its journalists “a fresh, data-based angle from which to explore and better understand the world around us.”
According to Jim Naureckas, the editor of self-described “progressive media watchdog” Fairness & Accuracy in Reporting, though, the partnership will open the door to political manipulation.
“In political coverage especially, media outlets have a strong tendency to cover the horserace rather than what candidates are proposing and how that’s likely to impact voters,” he continued. “Partnering with a gambling site is only going to encourage that—and strengthen the sense that politics is a spectator sport rather than an integral part of democracy.”
Kalshi users essentially place bets on various outcomes through yes-or-no questions. On Friday afternoon, for example, one trending question asked who would be the first to leave President Donald Trump’s cabinet. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth was leading the pack with 32 percent saying “yes,” but if a wealthy person or group wanted to tip the scales, they could flood in bets—and, theoretically, CNN could then publicize the skewed data.
Michael Clauw, a spokesman for Campaign for Accountability, a left-wing corporate ethics group that was once part of the Arabella Advisors network, warned Kalshi was bound to benefit by attracting new bettors.
“Prediction markets like Kalshi are just another form of gambling—plain and simple,” Clauw told the Washington Free Beacon. “While it’s perfectly understandable that a media company like CNN might see news value in checking in on certain markets as a way to measure public sentiment, they should seriously evaluate the impact of regularly pushing a gambling product to their viewers. Given that the deal will—reportedly—not see CNN paying licensing fees to use Kalshi’s data, it’s likely that the benefit Kalshi sees in this arrangement is in gaining access to CNN’s audience to turn them into election bettors.”
Those new bettors will likely lose out—a University College Dublin study found that average return is negative 22 percent.
Jack Such, a Kalshi representative, described the firm’s partnership with CNN as an “amazing complement to journalism.”
“By harnessing the wisdom of the crowds, Kalshi odds create the most accurate probabilities of current and future events known to man,” Such told the Free Beacon in a statement. “This data is an amazing complement to journalism; anyone who is concerned with fairness and accuracy in reporting should be celebrating the news that Kalshi is being adopted by major media outlets.”
CNN’s partnership in some ways puts the left-wing network in league with Donald Trump Jr., who joined Kalshi as a strategic adviser in January. Kalshi CEO and cofounder Tarek Mansour said the addition would amplify the firm’s “ability to make prediction markets mainstream” and help Americans “uncover the truth in today’s fractured, often biased media landscape.”
The Poynter Institute, another left-wing media watchdog, declined to comment.
“Thanks for reaching out to Poynter,” Jennifer Orsi, a Poynter vice president, told the Free Beacon. “I checked with our ethics chair, and she is tied up with teaching this week and isn’t familiar enough with the details of the case at hand to be able to speak to it quickly without some research. Unfortunately she can’t fit that into her schedule right now.”
CNN did not respond to a request for comment.
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