The face-off between Donald Trump and whoever is actually leading the Iranian regime entered a new phase this week. Tehran initially rejected the administration’s 15-point peace plan, then said it might eventually respond to it, and American paratroopers and Marines are on their way to the Middle East. The prospect of U.S. troops setting foot on Iranian-claimed territory is growing by the day.
Gulf oil and gas is still largely bottled up by Iran’s threats to international shipping, and prices are ticking up around the world. Donald Trump’s hints at negotiations and other market-calming gambits are demonstrating his usual flair for drama and improvisation, but demands for the war to end are rising in line with energy costs. These calls are misguided: The higher costs are painful, but the only sure way back to prewar prices is to defeat the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s rulers have correctly identified how to inflict the most damage on the global economy and, they hope, on the United States. Blocking commercial ships from transiting the Strait of Hormuz has cut off nearly one-fifth of the world’s supply of oil and natural gas. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has jumped from $70 per barrel to over $100 in the past month.
Blocking the Strait will cause further pain to people around the world, particularly the poor in neutral countries. Many Gulf states export agricultural fertilizers too, and Iran has stopped their exports as planting season begins in the northern hemisphere. Those prices have shot up, and this fall’s crop yields will likely decline commensurately. Having already unleashed conquest and war on their neighbors, the butchers of Tehran aim to release upon the world the last horsemen of the apocalypse, famine and death.
Bizarre stories in the media to the contrary, this threat has been common knowledge for decades. It is a persistent problem because it is a difficult one to solve. The Strait narrows at one point to 21 miles wide, and shipping is vulnerable along its nearly 100 miles to everything from cutting-edge missiles to cheap drones and age-old threats like sea mines. The American and Israeli militaries are systematically sinking the Iranian Navy and destroying other threats to shipping—Israel reportedly just killed the commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s navy too—but eradicating all of the possible threats is slow-going.
To stop the pain, many hope the United States will unilaterally declare a ceasefire or sue for peace by negotiating an agreement along the lines of the failed Obama-era nuclear deal. Again, this would be a mistake.
For one thing, an undefeated Iran would pose a persistent and graver threat to Gulf shipping and thus force up oil prices. If the mullahs can prevail in a conflict that began at a time chosen by the United States and Israel, they will have even better prospects when they can seize the initiative. Even before this campaign, Iran’s leaders occasionally rattled markets by threatening to close the Strait; if the Pentagon cannot deter them from closing it, traders will need to price in this heightened risk. The Gulf crude will become more expensive, and because oil is a globally traded commodity, it will spike in the United States and elsewhere too.
The air campaign is also proceeding well. Gauging the progress of any conflict can be hard, even with access to the classified information that does not reach the public, but there are many indicators that the toll on the Iranian regime has been immense. Central Command leader Admiral Brad Cooper said on Wednesday that the U.S. military has hit more than 10,000 Iranian targets, “damaged or destroyed over two-thirds of Iran’s missile, drone, and naval production facilities and shipyards,” and is “on a path to completely eliminate Iran’s wider military manufacturing apparatus.”
The Iranians, by contrast, are in disarray. Their ostensible new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, still has not been seen since he was injured in the strike that killed his father. Judging by the success with which Israel and the United States have dispatched so many of his subordinates, the regime seems thoroughly penetrated, and the survivors cannot trust each other much. The Revolutionary Guards are touting their new 12-year-old child soldiers, not stunning new capabilities.
There is still much work to be done though, and the going may get harder. Russia is helping Iran attack Americans and their allies, and the Kremlin is reportedly preparing shipments of drones for Iran. China and Russia are cutting back on their fertilizer exports, which will compound the pain for the world’s most vulnerable.
Defeating Iran and destroying its ability to develop nuclear weapons, attack its neighbors, and threaten the global economy are vitally important. That is why the Saudis and Emiratis, who do not want their customers to shop elsewhere for energy, are reportedly encouraging Trump to go for victory. The Israelis are too. Trump should listen to his allies.
Read the full article here
