Trick or Treat: Congress faces ‘chamber of horrors’ as government funding deadline looms

It was mid-July. And the House of Representatives was already done for the summer. 

That’s right around the same time Halloween decorations like gigantic yard skeletons and Reese’s peanut butter and chocolate pumpkins began materializing in stores.

Those weren’t phantasms. Halloween is the next big consumer holiday on the calendar.

I mean, what would you buy to decorate for Labor Day? 

But there’s a spooky alignment between July and Halloween when it comes to Congress. If you begin to see Halloween paraphernalia in July, that’s practically October in Capitol Hill terms. The reason? Congress didn’t finish its annual spending bills before the annual August recess and that means it will be a sprint to finish them by October 1, the deadline to avoid a government shutdown.

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Right around the same time that the rest of the nation starts thinking about ghosts and goblins for Halloween. 

The funding deadline is enough to convert the U.S. Capitol into a chamber of horrors for the entire month of September. Congress is always dragging to complete spending measures in July. Then August comes and concerns about the spending bills vanish like a ghost. Then the appropriations bills rise like mummies out of their coffins when Congress comes back in September. The battle over averting a government shutdown is like a vampire. It sucks most other legislative activity out of Congress until there’s a deal. That’s because most Members want no part of a government shutdown. Lawmakers from both sides know that government funding is one of the most important inflection points on the political calendar.

Let’s examine where we stand with government funding. 

Congress approved a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown in March. That interim spending package funded the government through September 30, the end of the federal fiscal year. The House approved the bill. But lawmakers worried about a potential government shutdown because breaking a filibuster on the measure required 60 votes. That entailed support of some Democrats since Republicans only have 53 votes in the Senate. 

At the last minute, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., announced he would help Republicans crack the filibuster. Schumer didn’t vote yes on the bill itself. But the New York Democrat argued that avoiding a shutdown at that point was better than enduring one under President Trump – and Elon Musk who was then fully empowered at DOGE.

Some longtime Capitol Hill hands and Congressional observers feared the government might shutter for a lengthy period if it closed. Schumer and other Democrats asserted that the President and Musk would use that as justification for never re-opening some parts of the government since they lacked funding from Congress.

Progressives excoriated Schumer for not extracting a major concession from President Trump and Congressional Republicans which reflected Democratic values and priorities. Liberals used Schumer’s decision as justification to demand new Democratic leadership in the Senate. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., appeared to seethe at Schumer’s maneuver, sidestepping questions from reporters about the break.

White House Budget Director Russ Vought says he wants a less bipartisan appropriations process. That’s fine. But this is about the math. House Republicans must stick together to pass any spending package there. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., can only lose three votes and still pass a bill without Democratic assistance. Likewise, Senate Republicans can only lose three votes there, too. But the real hurdle is the filibuster. That’s where 60 votes are necessary. And that means the GOP must lean on Democrats – assuming they’re willing to help out.

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It’s really unclear if Republicans can stick together to approve a spending package. Keep in mind that it’s almost a certainty that any spending measure must simply renew all current funding on a temporary basis. A lot of Republicans are fed up with this appropriations rut – especially since Johnson promised to do things differently once he claimed the Speaker’s gavel in October 2023. Remember that some conservatives helped bounce former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., less than two years ago because he propounded an interim spending plan. 

Some Republicans are beginning to lose patience with Johnson on spending plans. But remember that most Republicans will support whatever appropriations plan the GOP brass concocts – as long as it has the blessing of President Trump. 

So Vought may advocate for a more partisan process. But that won’t result in policy achievements and GOP spending priorities unless Republicans convince Democrats to play ball. 

Here’s another dynamic: some members of the conservative Freedom Caucus are hinting they simply want to re-up the current levels of funding again. Yes, lawmakers approved those spending plans under President Biden and a Democratic Senate. Therefore, much of the federal government is still operating under Democratic spending blueprints. But Democrats would demand more money for the next spending round. The same with some Republicans. So voting to renew the old money – regardless of who pushed for it – is less than Congress could have spent. That’s why some Freedom Caucus members suggest this would serve as a de facto spending cut.

They’re not wrong. Federal spending is almost always on an upward trajectory. This would level things off and bend the annual spending curve for the first time in decades. 

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So, if your goal is to trim funding, this may be the most plausible option under the present political circumstances.

Remember, it’s about the math. 

Moreover, Republicans have only approved a pittance of the funding cuts demanded by DOGE. Congress passed a bill to slash $9 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and foreign aid. That’s not a lot. And Republicans could barely approve that bill. How they rescind other funding remains to be seen. However, Republicans could greenlight all the old money – and then promise budget hawks they will attempt to claw back other tranches of spending through future recissions packages later in the fall or winter.

But Democrats won’t go for that. They’d view that as Republicans dropping a Hershey’s bar in their trick or treat bag – and then exchanging it for a rock.

It’s unclear if Democrats have explored soaping the Republicans’ windows at the Capitol this fall if Republicans attempt that gambit. But this could be a chance to find out. 

That brings us to the conundrum facing Schumer. One might question how the politics have changed since March – although President Trump and Musk are no longer in league with one another. But progressives will expect Schumer to demand a king’s ransom in exchange for Democratic votes breaking a filibuster. 

In other words, both Johnson and Schumer face decisions of frightening proportions very soon. 

It may seem as though October 1 is a long way down the calendar. It’s not. To ignore how complicated this may become is the legislative equivalent of whistling past the graveyard. 

This is going to become a rather spooky fall when it comes to funding the government. 

Makes you want to just sit in the corner, pull a blanket up over your head and devour a bag of Halloween candy.