Trump factor: Elections in this key state are seen as a partial referendum on the president

Tuesday’s primary contests in swing state Virginia are the starting gun for a general election showdown in November that is seen as a referendum on the job President Donald Trump is doing in his second tour of duty in the White House.

“Trump is going to play a role in this race,” Dave Richards, political science chair at the University of Lynchburg, highlighted.

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the non-partisan political handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, noted, “I do think Trump matters a lot for the general election.”

The top of the ticket is already set in Virginia, with Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears facing off against former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic Party nominee.

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The 61-year-old Earle-Sears was born in the Caribbean island nation of Jamaica and immigrated to the U.S. at the age of 6. She served in the Marines and is a former state lawmaker who made history four years ago when she won election as Virginia’s first female lieutenant governor. 

Spanberger, age 45, was born in New Jersey. The former intelligence officer in the CIA won election to Congress in 2018 before securing re-election in 2020 and 2022.

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The winner in November will make history as Virginia’s first female governor in the commonwealth’s four-century-long history. Additionally, if Earle-Sears comes out on top, she will become the nation’s first Black woman to win election as governor.

The winner will succeed incumbent Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is prevented from running for re-election, as Virginia’s constitution does not allow sitting governors to seek consecutive terms.

Republicans have already decided their nominations for lieutenant governor and attorney general, so all the action down-ballot in statewide races is among the Democrats.

Six Democrats are vying to face off in November against GOP lieutenant governor nominee John Reid, a former radio host, who, if elected, would be Virginia’s first openly gay lieutenant governor.

Additionally, two Democrats are running to challenge incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares.

Trump has been front and center in the Democratic Party primaries for lieutenant governor and attorney general in recent weeks. That has fueled strong turnout in the Democratic Party contests in the 45 days of early voting leading up to primary day, as the candidates running have pledged to fight back against the president’s sweeping and controversial agenda.

“Over 189,000 Virginians cast their ballots early in the Democratic primaries. 189,000!!!!” the state Democratic Party touted in a social media post on the eve of primary day.

Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been on a mission to chop government spending and cut the federal workforce.

The moves by DOGE, which until last month was steered by Elon Musk, the world’s richest person – have been felt acutely in suburban Washington’s heavily populated northern Virginia, with its large federal workforce.

“The policies of DOGE have hit northern Virginia hard,” Richards highlighted.

Virginia’s elections are certain to grab attention, as it and New Jersey – which held primaries last week – are the only two states to hold gubernatorial showdowns in the year following a presidential election.

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The elections for governor in both states are expected to be competitive and will likely be seen as early tests of the job Trump’s doing during his second term.

The results are also seen as a precursor to the following year’s midterm elections, when Republicans will be defending their House and Senate majorities, and 36 states will hold elections for governor.

Republicans swept the elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general in Virginia four years ago, breaking a 12-year losing streak to the Democrats. 

While Republicans have not carried the commonwealth in a White House contest since 2004, Trump only lost the state by six points in last November’s presidential election, a four-point improvement from his 2020 defeat.

However, Republicans will be facing historical headwinds this November. With only one exception – since 1977, the party that holds the White House has lost Virginia’s gubernatorial election.