In the three months since Donald Trump took the oath of office, he has launched one of the boldest revisions to U.S. foreign policy in this nation’s history. The flurry of new initiatives and surprising announcements has overwhelmed much of the commentariat’s ability to rationally analyze his presidency, but his goals for his second term in office are coming into view.
Trump seeks to fundamentally reorient our foreign policy. He hoped to quickly reach an agreement with Russia that would freeze the Ukraine war and pry Russia away from China, calm the Middle East down, restructure America’s trade relationships, and then go after China for its many malfeasances. This did not pan out as quickly as he hoped, and he will need all of his dealmaking powers as the trade war with China heats up.
Needless to say, Trump’s approach to diplomacy is unconventional and can seem confusing to outside observers. Most presidents implement only a handful of initiatives at a time that usually only become public knowledge once they have matured.
That’s not how Trump operates. “I never get too attached to one deal or one approach,” he wrote in the Art of the Deal. “I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first.” He also distrusts the diplomatic bureaucracy and has a lot of faith in his own instincts, so he often moves discussions to a high level much faster than his predecessors did.
So under a conventional rubric, Trump is earning very poor marks on foreign policy. The Ukraine war is still underway, and Moscow has not reciprocated despite his intense diplomatic pressure on Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky. On the contrary, the Palm Sunday missile attack underlines Russia’s rejection of Trump’s ceasefire proposal. The recent revelation that more than 100 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia shows that Moscow and Beijing are moving closer together. Meanwhile, Trump’s natural allies in Europe are trying to distance themselves from his maneuvers.
The Middle East has not calmed itself either. Gaza’s ceasefire has fallen apart and Israeli troops have retaken about a third of the territory. Yemen’s Houthis are still attacking international shipping despite the renewed American bombing campaign. Iran is unbowed, and Russia’s parliament just rubber-stamped the strategic partnership treaty Moscow and Tehran inked prior to Trump’s inauguration.
The Liberation Day tariffs appear disastrous too. The stock and bond markets are still reeling. The topline tariff rate on China goes up and up, but the wide exemptions for electronics suggest that the administration’s tolerance for more economic pain is not very high. And far from isolating China, the tariffs seem to have given Xi Jinping a diplomatic boost, as evinced by his recent tour of Southeast Asia.
Some of these criticisms have a point, but many are overstated. For example, allowing Israel to impose costs on Hamas for holding hostages, and perhaps even wipe out the terrorist group, is good and helps establish credibility for further negotiations. On Monday, Trump said about Iran, “I think they’re tapping us along,” and the aircraft carriers and heavy bombers surging to the Middle East remind Tehran that the price for defying America can be high.
Although the internet moves quickly, diplomacy often takes time, and the administration is not yet 100 days old. Obviously there are a few dangers with Trump’s approach. If he looks too eager to make a deal, his adversaries are likely to raise their bottom line rather than meet him halfway. Russia has already won an exemption from the tariff list without offering much in return. He also may not be able to meet his own aggressive timelines, and delays could look like defeats. Updating the trade agreement with Mexico and Canada took over a year in the first term, and negotiating new deals with 75 countries in 90 days will be a tall order. And by pursuing many new policies at the same time, he could pay the cost for them all without yet reaping the rewards.
But there are also opportunities for breakthroughs. Japan’s negotiators visited Washington this week, and while Tokyo is not eager to cave on trade, it was generally responsive to Trump’s concerns in his first term and should be again this time around. Squeezing Tehran won’t be easy, but its empire is in tatters, and it remains more vulnerable than China or Russia.
During his first term, Trump pulled off a largely successful juggling act. He did not get the breakthrough that he wanted with Russia or tame Iran, but he made important progress on China. Since then, America’s adversaries have grown stronger, the world has gotten more dangerous, and he can’t afford to drop as many balls.
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