President Trump’s latest Ukraine peace offensive took the world by storm. The 28-point plan and Thanksgiving deadline set off a diplomatic frenzy on both sides of the Atlantic. The Ukrainian government and European negotiators rushed to connect with their U.S. counterparts, and the Russians passive-aggressively threatened to veto any proposal emanating from these talks. As of this writing, 19 points are now on the table—and peace is nowhere in sight.
Amid this week’s zigs and zags, three dynamics stood out as the most important factors affecting the fate of Ukraine: Trump is determined not to be dragged in any further, but he wants to be at the center of anything that happens, and none of the other powers are strong enough to change his mind or meaningfully alter facts on the ground.
The administration’s initial proposal landed like a bomb in Kyiv. Among other things, Russia would gain territory that its army has not yet won on the battlefield, and Ukraine would have to shrink its army and forswear any attempt to join NATO. President Volodymyr Zelensky told his countrymen they faced “the risk of losing a key partner, or 28 difficult points, or an extremely harsh winter.”
But after a hastily assembled meeting in Geneva, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “this is a living, breathing document.” A 19-point plan emerged shortly thereafter, and Zelensky requested to meet Trump “as soon as possible” to work out the remaining details.
For many of Ukraine’s friends, the inclusion of a security guarantee in both drafts is a major victory. Unfortunately, that promise is exactly as valuable as the 1994 Budapest Memorandum guarantees for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territory in exchange for returning its share of the Soviet nuclear arsenal to Russia—that is, not at all.
The text of any agreement is less important than the will to enforce it, and there simply isn’t any. Trump sees Ukraine as a European problem, and he is not going to send in U.S. troops to monitor compliance with a ceasefire, let alone restore one if it is broken.
The last thing Trump wants is to risk American lives or commit major resources to an issue like this. Polling indicates that Russia’s recalcitrance is making GOP voters more sympathetic to Ukraine, but further aid is still divisive among Republicans. There is, moreover, a bipartisan consensus against sending troops to the war-torn country.
Trump would clearly prefer for the conflict to end in a negotiated settlement, but even though Thanksgiving did not usher in an outbreak of comity in Eastern Europe, being at the center of the diplomatic action can be good for him. When handled well, it divides his opponents, enhances his stature, and increases his power.
The constant parade of foreign leaders coming to Trump cap in hand, the agonies and ecstasies of the international press, and the furious infighting within the administration centers the world’s attention on him. His subordinates are too busy to freelance, the Europeans are too eager for his help to regulate against American companies, and the media are too fixated on the wheeling and dealing to poke around at other, potentially more embarrassing stories.
This juggling act would all come crashing down upon his head if another power could significantly affect the course of the war, but none are willing and able to. The other members of the new anti-American axis are backing Putin’s war effort, but Xi Jinping is not eager to throw enough resources into the meat grinder to empower Putin to take the Donbas, let alone the rest of Ukraine.
For their part, the Europeans are lobbying the White House so furiously because they have no other options. The leaders of their strongest countries are desperately staving off insurgent political parties and cannot muster the support Ukraine needs.
Europe’s great hope was that the European Union would be stronger than the sum of its members, but the opposite is occurring. It is hard to imagine a realpolitik mastermind like Otto von Bismarck permitting a little country to veto anything, yet the European Union was specifically designed to prevent any member from becoming as disruptive as Bismarckian Prussia. So the EU cannot seize Russia’s frozen banking assets without overcoming Belgium’s veto, and it cannot stop Russia’s oil tanker fleet for fear of offending the Greeks.
For all the talk of European solidarity with Ukraine, no NATO member is fighting Russia on the battlefield now or intends to ever do so. Until that changes, the Ukrainians must depend on themselves and the strength of their arms.
As Advent begins this weekend, Christians around the world will celebrate the arrival of the Prince of Peace. But in Eastern Europe, the winter belongs to the prince of darkness grim.
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