Egg prices have declined rapidly over the last year as the market normalizes following a significant avian flu outbreak that began in 2022, though the threat of a resurgence in the virus could lead to volatility later this year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday reported the consumer price index (CPI) for February, which showed egg prices declined by 3.8% in the month and are down 42.1% from a year ago. By contrast, headline CPI inflation was 2.4% higher than it was a year ago.
Bernt Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, told FOX Business that the U.S. egg industry has been on a “rollercoaster of avian influenza detection” since 2022, with detections ranging from about 20 million birds affected to nearly zero birds, depending on the time of year.
“Because of this, we’ve had times when the laying flock was damaged enough to really drive prices higher,” Nelson said. He added that a dozen eggs cost around $4.14 in December 2024 and climbed to a high of $6.22 a dozen in March 2025 – but those have since declined to about $2.50 a dozen, according to data from the BLS and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Economic Research Service.
FEBRUARY INFLATION BREAKDOWN: WHERE ARE PRICES RISING AND FALLING THE FASTEST?
Nelson added that as of December 2025, egg prices were about 12% below the five-year average as the market recovered from the avian flu-related price shocks. The stabilization of the market comes as the USDA has stepped up detection activities to help mitigate outbreaks.
“USDA has made some dramatic improvements in the last year,” he explained, noting that the agency offers a wildlife assessment that looks for ways wild birds may infiltrate an egg farm as well as a domestic assessment that considers ways to promote agricultural hygiene such as undertaking a foot bath before entering an egg layer house.
“USDA offers these free of charge and then it becomes up to the egg farmer to implement the changes that they need to help secure their farm,” Nelson said, adding that it has “dramatically improved the ability to keep supplies in the pipeline.”
INFLATION HELD STEADY IN FEBRUARY AND REMAINED ABOVE THE FED’S TARGET
In the last six months, the slowdown in avian flu cases has allowed production to recover and increase, bringing prices below the level they were at before the larger outbreak began.
However, the USDA’s wildlife monitoring has found a very high viral load in wild migratory birds passing through all four of the flyways that cross the U.S. from south to north in recent months, which can impact the egg, turkey and broiler industries.
Nelson noted that in the last 30 days there have been about 14 million birds affected, which was higher than some of the lower caseload months during the supply chain normalization.
HOW THE IRAN WAR COULD HIT AMERICANS’ GROCERY BILLS
He said there have been about four million detections in March overall, mostly attributed to two relatively large avian flu detections announced this week that covered four million birds at egg production facilities.
“What that demonstrates is that you can have almost no detections going on, it can be just a really low, smooth sailing situation, and all of a sudden you can have a detection at one of these bigger farms and when that detection it can take a lot of layers out of the pipeline very quickly,” Nelson said.
“We’re not seeing the impacts of that supply change yet, but if we see avian influenza continue to affect houses like that where you’re seeing a high number of birds affected month to month, it can very well push prices back up,” he added.
Nelson said that when egg farmers’ flocks are impacted by avian flu it can take an emotional toll on the farmers as well as cause financial harm, as USDA indemnity programs cover things like cleanup costs but doesn’t cover the production stoppage that can last up to six months.
Read the full article here
