The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said that it will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged following its June monetary policy meeting as policymakers continue to monitor inflation and labor market data amid elevated economic uncertainty.
The central bank’s decision leaves the benchmark federal funds rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. It comes after the Fed left rates at that level at its three prior meetings in January, March and May. The central bank cut rates at its final three meetings last year, which involved a 50-basis-point cut in September and a pair of 25-basis-point reductions in November and December.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which guides the central bank’s monetary policy moves, noted in its announcement that, “Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.”
“The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated,” the FOMC statement noted. Policymakers added that uncertainty about the economic outlook “has diminished but remains elevated” and that the Fed is “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” which is to pursue maximum employment and stable prices with long-run inflation at 2%.
TRUMP SLAMS ‘STUPID’ FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL AHEAD OF INTEREST RATE DECISION
FOMC policymakers also released a summary of economic projections, known as the so-called “dot plot,” which showed members see two interest rate cuts in 2025, followed by one cut each in 2026 and 2027.
They also project PCE inflation will rise to 3% this year before declining to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% the following year. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is seen as slowing to 1.4% in 2025 before growth picks up to 1.6% next year and 1.8% in 2027. Unemployment is seen as rising to 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, before dipping to 4.4% in 2027.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks during a post-announcement press conference that “despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position” as the “unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal, but has been running somewhat above our 2% longer-run objective.”
He added that the Fed’s “current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.”
WILL PRESSURE FROM TRUMP AND VANCE SPUR POWELL TO CUT INTEREST RATES?
Powell also discussed policymakers’ views on how tariffs implemented by the Trump administration will impact inflation, saying that, “The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level. Expectations of that level and thus, of the related economic effects, reached a peak in April and have since declined. Even so, increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”
“The effects on inflation could be short-lived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. It’s also possible that inflationary effects could instead be more persistent,” he added. “Avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of the tariff effects, on how long it takes for them to pass through fully into prices, and ultimately on keeping longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored.”
The Fed chair was asked about the timing of the impact of tariffs on inflation data, which has been limited to date amid the administration’s delays to some tariffs.
TRUMP EYES CABINET MEMBER TO REPLACE ‘MR TOO LATE’ POWELL AT THE FED: REPORT
“We’ve had three months of favorable inflation readings since the high readings of January and February, and that’s, of course, highly welcome news,” Powell said, noting that services inflation have trended down. “We’ve had inflation goods just moving a bit… we do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.”
“It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer. A good example of that would be goods being sold at retailers today may have been imported several months ago before tariffs were imposed. So we’re beginning to see some effects, and we do expect to see more of them over the coming months,” he said.
“Many companies do expect to put all – some or all of the effect of tariffs through to the next person in the chain and ultimately to the consumer,” Powell said.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell and the Fed for not lowering interest rates, including comments Wednesday calling Powell “a stupid person.”
The chair declined to weigh in on Trump’s comments and said that he and the FOMC are focused on facilitating “a good, solid American economy with a strong labor market and price stability.” He also said he’s focused solely on monetary policy and not whether he will continue to serve as a Fed governor if the president, as expected, opts against reappointing him to another term as chair.
GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS UNDERMINING CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE HAS ECONOMIC REPERCUSSIONS
Powell was asked by FOX Business Network’s Edward Lawrence whether current economic data indicates there should be a rate cut.
“Monetary policy has to be forward-looking – that is elementary… We always talk about the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. And we say that over and over and over again,” Powell replied. “The economy seems to be in solid shape, so the labor market is not crying out for a rate cut.”
“Businesses, you know, were in a bit of shock after April 2, but you see business sentiment, you talk to business people. There’s a very different feeling now that people are working their way through this, and they understand how they’re going to go and it feels much more positive and constructive than it did three months ago,” he added.
Chief economist for Comerica Bank Bill Adams said in a statement following the Fed’s announcement that, “In short, the FOMC decisions signals that the FOMC still think they could cut rates this year, but are less confident about that view than they were before April’s tariff hikes and the outbreak of the Israel-Iran war.”
“The Fed doesn’t have great tools to combat stagflationary shocks like tariff hikes or disruptions to the supply of oil from the Mideast,” Adams added.
Cory Stahle, senior economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, noted that the Fed’s perspective appears to be that “substantial ongoing uncertainty paired with a good-enough-for-now labor market is ample justification to continue its wait-and-see approach.”
The market’s expectations surrounding the Fed’s next rate cut shifted slightly following the decision. The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged again in July rose from 83% to 89%, per the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, the odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September rose from 53% to over 61%.
The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for July 29-30.
Read the full article here
