Amid a growing standoff between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the White House is highlighting a favorable economic report card as justification for lowering interest rates.
Data compiled by the White House Council of Economic Advisers for the first six months of 2025 shows strong consumer spending, stable job growth and recovering industrial output.
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At the heart of the conflict is Powell’s reluctance to lower interest rates – a stance rooted in the Federal Reserve’s cautious, data-dependent approach to managing inflation and economic growth.
The next opportunity for the Fed to cut rates is during the July 29 to 30 meeting.
Powell’s wait-and-see economic policy has kept the central bank’s key borrowing rate within a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
Meanwhile, Trump has called on the Fed to cut rates to 1%, citing a strong job market and a cooling in inflation rates.
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On the labor front, U.S. employers beat estimates and added 147,000 jobs in June. What’s more, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, according to data compiled by the Labor Department.
The Council of Economic Advisers also reports that between January and June, manufacturing output rose by 1.8%, reversing a 0.7% decline in the five months leading up to Trump’s inauguration.
Trump’s top economic advisors also point to a rise in retail sales at 0.6% in June, above the 0.1% expectation.
JOB GROWTH PICKED UP IN JUNE DESPITE ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
Powell has held off cutting rates, in part, to assess the economic impact of Trump’s tariff blitz.
So far in July, Trump has announced plans to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and all 27 countries that make up the European Union.
Those tariffs come on the heels of a 50% levy on copper imports and products from Brazil, a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and other tariffs imposed on more than 20 countries.
The announced tariffs are slated to take effect at the end of July.
TRUMP’S TARIFF REVENUES ARE HITTING RECORD-HIGHS, GENERATING $100 BILLION SO FAR THIS YEAR
So far in 2025, tariff revenues have reached $128.9 billion, according to the Treasury Department’s latest figures.
In the month of June alone, the U.S. received more than $27 billion in customs duties, the highest figure so far in 2025.
At the start of Trump’s second term, tariff revenues hovered around $7.9 billion and more than doubled in April to $16.3 billion.
Additionally, major stock indexes – including the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones – have neared record highs, shrugging off trade uncertainty and defying persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and tariff-related risks.
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