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Airfare could become cheaper due to people slimming down, a new theory suggests.
Analysts at Jeffries are predicting that the expanded use of GLP-1 obesity drugs may reduce fuel consumption, which could translate into lower costs for airplane tickets, as Fox Business has reported.
The Wall Street firm suggested that a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could lead to about a 2% savings in aircraft weight, 1.5% lower fuel costs and a 4% boost to earnings per share.
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“A slimmer society = lower fuel consumption,” Jeffries reportedly wrote in a note to clients. “Airlines have a history of being vigilant around aircraft weight savings, from olives (pitless, of course) to paper stock.”
These predictions come as weight-loss drug options are growing and the first GLP-1 pill has hit the market, making the medication more accessible.
Gary Leff, a Texas-based travel industry expert and author of the blog “View From the Wing,” elaborated on this prediction in an interview with Fox News Digital.
“The heavier something is, the more fuel it burns,” he said. “If passengers weigh less, planes require less fuel to fly. If everyone went to the bathroom before they flew, they’d weigh less and burn less fuel, too.”
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“So, if average passenger weight declines, then flying the same plane on the same route will cost the airline less to operate,” he went on. “And in the most contestable markets, that will bring down fares, too, as airlines compete for passengers.”
Leff suggested that this won’t be true in all markets. Where the “supply of flights is constrained,” like in major cities, these lower costs are more likely to benefit the airlines than the passengers, as “costs fall, but fares do not.”
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From a clinical perspective, Dr. Krishna Vyas, a plastic surgeon in New York City, noted that under current conditions, the use of GLP-1 medications is “too limited, too uneven and too short-lived to meaningfully lower average passenger weight at a population level.”
“Most patients discontinue therapy within one to two years, and weight regain after stopping treatment is common, making durable, large-scale reductions in passenger mass unlikely,” he told Fox News Digital. “Even if modest fuel savings were realized, there is no evidence they would translate into lower ticket prices.”
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“GLP-1 medications represent a significant medical advance for individual cardiometabolic health, but extending their benefits to speculative effects on airline economics goes beyond what current clinical and population data support,” Vyas continued.
“Until broader access, durable adherence and sustained population-level outcomes are demonstrated, cheaper airfare should be viewed as a theoretical possibility — not a predictable consequence — of weight-loss drug use.”
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Dr. Peter Balazs, a hormone and weight loss specialist in New York and New Jersey, discussed how GLP-1s could potentially impact the in-flight experience.
“Patients on GLP-1s experience reduced cravings for carbohydrates and a heightened preference for protein and fats,” he said. “Airlines may need to reconsider in-flight menus to cater to this growing demographic, offering more high-protein, low-carb options.”
Balazs noted that weight-loss medications can lead to gastrointestinal side effects, including GERD, dyspepsia, nausea and vomiting.
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“From a medical standpoint, I would suggest loading up on antiemetics (medications that prevent or relieve nausea and vomiting),” Balazs shared as advice to the airlines. “Furthermore, I would counsel patients not to initiate therapy or administer a first dose shortly before a flight to avoid severe side effects at altitude.”
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