This article was originally published by Michael Snyder at The Economic Collapse Blog.
Are you ready for store shelves to start emptying all over America? When I first started writing about the coming shortages last month, I received quite a bit of criticism. But now, expert after expert is warning that we really are facing a crisis of historic proportions. Most major retailers still have several weeks of inventory on hand, but after that, shortages are going to start becoming very visible.
For smaller businesses, the shortages will be noticeable a lot sooner. On Sunday, I visited a local small business to purchase some groceries. In addition to selling groceries, this particular discount store also sells a wide variety of other products, and some of them are made in China. As I walked through the aisles, I was stunned by how low their stock levels were. Honestly, it was kind of depressing.
Of course, anything that we are witnessing now is just the leading edge of what is eventually coming.
According to CNN, it is estimated that “Chinese imports into the United States will plunge by as much as 80% by the second half of the year”…
The historically high tariff on China has effectively stopped all trade between the two countries, Trump has said repeatedly. The number of cargo ships headed from China to the United States fell 60% in April, according to Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarding broker. JPMorgan estimates Chinese imports into the United States will plunge by as much as 80% by the second half of the year.
American consumers should expect pandemic-like disruptions as goods that were warehoused before tariffs took effect begin to run out over the next week or so, including higher prices, shortages and empty store shelves.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said repeatedly that the high tariff on China are “unsustainable,” and Trump also said he expects the tariff to come down. But it would need to come down significantly – by more than half – for any real trade to recommence, trade experts say. But even then, the economic damage would be done — and it would be weeks or even months before American shelves would be replenished.
This is going to be catastrophic.
Anyone who cannot see this simply does not understand how our system works.
Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen is a supply chain expert that helps thousands of businesses move products around the globe, and he is warning that we are facing “an extinction-level, asteroid-wiping-out-the-dinosaurs kind of event”…
“If they don’t change the tariffs, it’s going to be an extinction-level, asteroid-wiping-out-the-dinosaurs kind of event,” he told me. “Only these aren’t dinosaurs. These are dynamic, healthy businesses.”
He knows this because those businesses are his customers.
They use Flexport to transport products from the factory to your front door. Petersen’s company handles everything from booking space on planes, trucks and enormous ocean carriers to managing all the tedious paperwork along the way.
Ryan Petersen knows exactly what he is talking about, because dealing with supply chains is what he does for a living.
According to Petersen, container bookings from China to the United States have already fallen by 60 percent…
But since the tariffs took effect, ocean-freight bookings from China to the U.S. have dropped 60%, Petersen says. In response, containership operators are shrinking their boats and canceling trips altogether. It takes a while for downstream consequences to flow through the system—but logistics nerds can look at the data on their screens and see into the future.
If tariffs continue at this rate, Petersen says, it’s only a matter of time before that asteroid hits.
There are thousands upon thousands of products that are made in China that aren’t made anywhere else.
And it takes years to build new factories and set up new supply chains.
So how are we possibly going to replace the 438 billion dollars of imports from China that normally fill up our store shelves?
Of course the truth is that we aren’t going to replace those imports and store shelves will soon start getting emptier and emptier.
In addition, it is likely that we will see massive layoffs as supply chains all over the U.S. slow down dramatically. Southern California is one area that will get hit particularly hard…
With more than 70% of the port workforce living within a 10-mile radius of the complex, LA’s waterfront communities of San Pedro, Wilmington and Long Beach are expected to be the first hit by the slowdown, but they will certainly not be the last, said Gary Herrera, president of International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) local 13.
“One in every five jobs in southern California is tied to the ports – warehouse workers, truck drivers, logistic teams and more,” said Herrera, who has been a longshore worker since 1998. Herrera says LA’s Inland Empire, including Riverside and San Bernardino, which serve as warehousing centers for retailers such as Walmart and Amazon, as well as communities such as Bakersfield and Barstow, which have freight rail lines, will also be severely affected.
Even if President Trump made a deal with China this week, we are being told that it could take up to a year for our supply chains to fully return to normal…
“These are big, massive bullwhips that have not been seen since COVID,” Evan Smith, the CEO of the supply-chain-management company Altana Technologies, told me. “The tariffs themselves are a shock to the system, and the shock is echoed and amplified across the entire chain. Even if there is resolution, it will take nine to 12 months to work out these bumps.”
The good news is that it appears that the Chinese are open to beginning negotiations with the Trump administration.
But the Chinese are insisting that they will not be coerced into making a deal.
There had been hope that tariffs on Chinese goods would be reduced in an attempt to get China to the negotiating table, but President Trump has slammed the door on that possibility…
When Welker directly asked, “You’re not dropping the tariffs against China to get them to the negotiating table?”
Trump’s response was unequivocal: “No.” His firm stance underscores a broader strategy of using tariffs as leverage to protect American economic interests and curb China’s global influence.
Even if negotiations commenced tomorrow, we would probably not see a deal with China until months from now.
Meanwhile, our supply chain crisis will continue to get worse with each passing day.
If there is anything that is made in China that you are going to need, I would get it immediately.
It does not appear that President Trump plans to reverse course on his tariffs anytime soon. In fact, he just unveiled a new 25 percent tariff rate on most foreign-made auto parts…
President Trump’s tariffs on foreign-made auto parts began on May 3, with automakers receiving some concessions from the administration but still feeling the heat on others.
Trump signed an executive order formalizing the new rules late last week, which gave some carve-outs to what would have been blanket 25% tariffs on imported auto parts. Everything from foreign-made powertrain components to seats and airbags is affected.
This is not a drill.
A global trade war is here, and it is going to cause immense pain all over the planet.
It won’t be too long before empty shelves start appearing all over America.
So if there is something that you need to get done, get it done now.
Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
About the Author: Michael Snyder’s new book, entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next,” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com. He has also written nine other books that are available on Amazon.com, including “Chaos”, “End Times”, “7 Year Apocalypse”, “Lost Prophecies Of The Future Of America”, “The Beginning Of The End”, and “Living A Life That Really Matters”. When you purchase any of Michael’s books, you help to support the work that he is doing. You can also get his articles by email as soon as he publishes them by subscribing to his Substack newsletter. Michael has published thousands of articles on The Economic Collapse Blog, End Of The American Dream, and The Most Important News, and he always freely and happily allows others to republish those articles on their own websites. These are such troubled times, and people need hope. John 3:16 tells us about the hope that God has given us through Jesus Christ: “For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.” If you have not already done so, we strongly urge you to invite Jesus Christ to be your Lord and Savior today.
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