It is hard to believe, but we are almost a quarter of the way through the MLB season. Every year I grow older, I also feel like the years go faster, so I suppose the same can be said about the baseball year. It might be the right time to start assessing teams and get a feel for who is likely to make the postseason, and who will not. Two teams with postseason aspirations square off today as the Rays take on the Blue Jays.
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the best teams in baseball with a strong 26-13 record. They have a winning road record, but about 75% of their losses have been while they don the road gray. I will say I was a bit surprised about the Rays’ performance in the early stretch of this season. The offense has been substantially better than I thought it would be. They always seem to make diamonds out of whatever pitching they have, but they have been extra special this year.
One of their top performers has been today’s starter, Drew Rasmussen. After being a swing-guy in 2024, he was a full-time starter in 2025 and pitched excellently. He has carried that over into this season and is 2-1 for the year with a 2.95 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Rasmussen has made four road starts, and his ERA is almost two runs higher as a visitor than as a home pitcher. None of the starts, with maybe the 3.2 innings and four runs allowed to Pittsburgh, were that bad, though. His last start was against the Blue Jays, and he allowed three earned runs over six innings.
The Toronto Blue Jays, coming off a World Series loss to the Dodgers, haven’t found their footing this year. They are 18-22 for the season, and they are 12-9 at home. The offense doesn’t seem to be the problem. They are hitting about in line with what the production from the Rays has been this year. So, perhaps that is a reason for optimism. A reason for pessimism is that their pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.
One guy who has performed better than their club overall is today’s starter, Kevin Gausman. For the year, he is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. He’s been very comfortable pitching on the home rubber as well. He is 1-1 with a 1.88 home ERA in 24 innings of work. He has a quality start in three of four home games and five of his eight outings.
I played this game last time that Rasmussen and Gausman squared off. That was a 4-3 win for the Rays. Both starters performed admirably. It doesn’t always mean they will do well in the next outing, though. Pitchers, in general, are easier to hit when the hitter has seen them recently. Rasmussen and Gausman are not ordinary hurlers, and should be able to navigate fairly well.
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I do think both of them are probably going to allow a couple of runs tonight. I’ve been impressed with both offenses. I’m backing the over tonight as I think both teams will get a few runs off the starters and then we see the rest come off the bullpen.
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