I want to start by mentioning that there may be some bad weather in Chicago, so it is possible that this play never happens. Before you stop reading, they are still likely to get the game in, but I just wanted to give a heads up. A lot worse things could happen than you putting your money on the line and the game getting canceled. Today, we celebrate America, and today we put a play on two teams that combine for red, white, and blue colors as the Cardinals take on the Cubs.
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing very well for themselves this season. In a season where the expectations were almost nonexistent, they have found a way to not only be competitive but look like a potential playoff team. I don’t think anyone would necessarily fear them in a five or seven-game series, but I do think the Cardinals are a solid club with a lot going for them at the moment. They are 46-39 and have a winning road record as well. Their offense is solid, specifically their batting average, but they also have a solid number of runs this year, ranking in the exact middle of the majors at 396 runs scored.
Today, we look at their starting pitcher, Kyle Leahy. For the season, Leahy is 6-4 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. None of those numbers stand out as overly impressive, and I do have some concern about Leahy’s WHIP. If he is allowing that much traffic on the bases, teams are going to have a good chance to put up crooked numbers. He has been worse on the road than at home as well, with a 3-1 record and a 5.35 road ERA. The good news for him is that he put together a very nice June with a 3.76 ERA over the month and only one game where he allowed more than three earned runs. He did face the Cubs earlier this season and allowed one earned run on six hits over 4.1 innings.
The Chicago Cubs have had an interesting season. At one point, they looked like they might be the best team in the league. At another, they looked like they might be the worst team in baseball. They’ve had two 10-game winning streaks and a 10-game losing streak. That’s not really normal. Someone has said you win a third of your games, lose a third, and what you do with the other third is what makes the difference for your season. I think that’s probably true with these Cubs. Their pitching staff has been decimated, so they are going to rely on a hot or cold offense to give them their results.
Tonight, they have one of the lone starters for the team who hasn’t been injured at any point this year, Shota Imanaga. I’ve really liked Imanaga over the years, and we’ve been very profitable with him. However, I do recognize that he’s not an Ace, and might not even be someone you want in your rotation for the postseason. He hasn’t been very good this year, going 5-6 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. That WHIP does indicate to me that he could be the bearer of some bad luck, but the 20 homers he has allowed also show me that when he is hit, he is hit hard. He has struggled a bit at home this year, with a 4.55 home ERA. He also was rocked by the Cardinals in his start against them, going 5.1 innings, allowing five earned runs on five hits, including three homers.
This is a game we should get some runs in. The weather may be a factor for getting this game in tonight, but I think the overall weather should give us some solid conditions for the hitters to swing in. I think the Cardinals are very live dogs in this game, and the line of +134 is too good to just ignore, so I’ll put a little on that.
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The thing is, I don’t like either of these pitchers all that much. Leahy gives up a lot of runs, and Imanaga is susceptible to the long ball. I think the smart play in this game is to take the over 8 runs. Both teams have a lot of offensive firepower, so give me the over 8. The wind is going to be blowing in as of right now, which actually favors the Cubs and the under, so bettor beware.
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