In my article about the Yankees and Red Sox yesterday, I talked about dodging bad luck. Instead of dodging it, I walked face-first into a wall. The Red Sox had a no-hitter going, and then blew it late in the game. The score was still just 2-0 going into the ninth inning. Then the bullpen blew it. In the 10th inning, the teams combined for five runs, giving a total of nine when I bet under eight. It was a painful way to lose that game. This has been the case for about a week. Hopefully it balances on our side quickly as we take on the Giants vs. Diamondbacks.
The San Francisco Giants are having a year to forget. Their team has been in the news mostly because of Pride Night, not because of any memorable on-field production. For the season, they are 13 games under .500 at 35-48, and they’ve gone just 17-26 on the road. The team has a lineup full of players with potential, and their offense has been as productive as you would hope. They are batting .256 as a team with 88 homers, but they just aren’t manufacturing the runs that you would hope. They average just about four runs a game, which isn’t terrible, but it seems like they can’t string together the hits for big innings.
Perhaps the issue is their pitching staff. Collectively, they have a 4.31 ERA, which isn’t great, but it is manageable. Tyler Mahle is taking the mound, and he has been knocked around quite a bit this season. He is 1-7 with a 5.49 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. When he is locked in, he can deliver a decent performance, as evidenced by four starts of five innings or more and no runs allowed on his game log. When he isn’t, he can give up crooked numbers in a heartbeat, as evidenced by six starts of four or more earned runs allowed. He faced the Diamondbacks twice last month and allowed nine earned runs on 11 hits over 10 innings.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are playing well, especially when you consider that they have traded away many pieces over the past year. I’d be surprised if the team makes the playoffs, but for now, they are doing an admirable job of keeping their team afloat. They are 41-42 for the season, and they’ve been successful at home, going 24-17. They aren’t really doing better than the Giants in any category other than runs, which makes their record even more impressive.
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Tonight, they are sending out Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound. For the season, Rodriguez has been very impressive, going 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He has been even better at home, going 53.2 innings and throwing to a 1.84 ERA. This is not a guy I would’ve predicted it to happen for, and the WHIP indicates his ERA is likely to increase as the season goes along. Still, the work so far has been impressive. He faced the Giants once already this season, and he turned in six solid innings where he allowed just two runs on six hits.
The Giants can’t possibly be happy to see the Diamondbacks. For the season, Arizona has demolished them, winning all six of the games they’ve played. Perhaps that means the Giants will steal this one. I could see it happening. Mahle isn’t exactly reliable, but as mentioned, if he locks in, he can be very strong. I still don’t think it is worth betting on him in this situation given that Rodriguez has looked so good.
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I think the total is also a risky endeavor here. So my bet is going to be on the Diamondbacks through five innings. If you want to take the moneyline and get a chance for a tie, go for it. I think they should be ahead, though, with Rodriguez on the mound. Give me the Diamondbacks -0.5 on the run line through five innings.
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