The political drama about the Iran deal is nearing its climax as Vice President J.D. Vance prepares to sign on Friday the memorandum of understanding with Iran that he and Donald Trump electronically signed on Sunday. The official text of this MOU has not yet been released, but Bloomberg appears to have obtained a copy of it.
Most successful negotiations require some level of secrecy while they are underway, but the continued lack of information about this agreement—which the president has already signed—is unusual. Vance remarked on Monday, “The MOU is about a page and a half, so it is a very general document,” and the Bloomberg text indicates the negotiators left most issues of significance unaddressed. The American and Israeli militaries performed splendidly during the six-week war, but the MOU reveals the White House is more eager for a deal than the mullahs are. This stage of the Iran conflict is a defeat, and the next step is to limit the damage to U.S. interests.
The leaked MOU lays out several stages of negotiations, but since most of those sections are equally grandiose and fanciful, the one that deserves the most scrutiny is the first. In essence, the United States will “immediately” lift the blockade of Iran, “issue waivers” that enable Iran to export oil and related products, and allow Iran to access its funds “in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement.” Iran says it will “take steps” to allow the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened.
Once those steps are underway, a final agreement will supposedly be negotiated. In the interim, Iran says it will “maintain the status quo on its nuclear program” and Trump “will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.” The two parties commit to “an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.”
Much of the language in this document is vague, so it is difficult to pin down what each country has actually agreed to, but the plainest meaning of the text indicates a lopsided deal. The United States has committed to immediately easing its economic pressure on Iran, and Iran has only promised to set in motion a process that should eventually open the Strait. The Islamic Republic—which is still attacking shipping in the Strait—can drag its feet, but the United States must leap to comply. Meanwhile, Tehran can continue its campaign of international terrorism and rebuild its war machine while Washington stands pat.
The rest of the document is unlikely to come to fruition. Iran would receive over $300 billion if it came to an arrangement about its nuclear program that satisfies Trump, but with the pressure off, there is little reason to believe that it will make any further concessions. And CIA director John Ratcliffe reportedly told Trump that his agency collected intelligence indicating Iran’s leaders intend to play a double game with these negotiations.
Some commentators have noted, correctly, that there are few yardsticks by which to measure compliance, to say nothing of mechanisms to enforce deviations from the agreement. That is beside the point. Trump signed this document because he escalated the conflict as far as he was willing to go, did not get the results he wanted, and is now trying to put the conflict in the rearview mirror. There will be little enthusiasm in the White House to hold Iran to its obligations and risk provoking it further.
If Trump does not find a way to recover quickly, this MOU could mark the effective end of his presidency. The air campaign inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military capabilities and nuclear program, which will buy some time. But the Gulf Arabs, who have been in the crosshairs for months, are unlikely to wait until Tehran has fully rearmed to cut a deal. And since Trump has agreed to restrain Israel, which reportedly has not even been allowed to see the text, he cannot use his most capable ally to curb Iran. The ripple effects could extend far beyond the Middle East. The midterms are looking grim, the Iran campaign has split the president’s party, congressional Republicans are openly expressing their impatience, and Trump is now in danger of presiding over a regional collapse.
Second-term presidents often run into similar challenges, and many turn to foreign policy, where they have the fewest domestic constraints on action. Trump has a flair for improvisation and is eager to build a lasting legacy, so he is likely to make the same pivot. But to turn the tide against America’s fanatical enemies, he also needs to exhibit steadfastness and resolve.
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