Fireworks, flags and BBQs are Fourth of July staples, but America’s 250th birthday brings an extra helping of absurdity to Coney Island. Yet, none capture the nation’s spirit quite like the legendary Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, a Coney Island spectacle dating back to 1916.
As ridiculous as it may sound, my favorite Red, White and Boom tradition is betting on the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Since joining OutKick in 2022, I’ve won money in two of my three on the Super Bowl of Major League Eating (MLE).
Elite eaters face a brutal new opponent this year: A scorching Brooklyn weather forecast climbing into the upper 90s. Extreme heat is set to significantly affect swallowing speed, completely shaking up the oddsmakers’ lines. Welcome to “Glizzy Gambling,” your ultimate betting guide to cashing in on this Independence Day.
JOEY CHESTNUT WILL DEFEND NATHAN’S HOT DOG EATING CONTEST TITLE ON JULY 4 WHILE SERVING PROBATION SENTENCE
These odds are the best available at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Joey Chestnut: UNDER 70.5 (-165) via DraftKings
First of all, the Glizzy GOAT has eaten 71+ hot dogs and buns (HDB) five times and finished with exactly 70.5 HBD last year. Not to get too nerdy here, but since five out of 16 is 31% and the implied probability of -165 is 62%, I’m getting a good number for the UNDER 70.5 HBD.
Yet, when you factor in the projected heat, I’m getting a great price on that Under. Temperatures in Brooklyn for July 4th are forecasted to be in the upper 90s, and it’s harder to down glizzies in the extreme heat. Sweating in the heat leads to dehydration and makes it tougher to juggle all of those hot dogs. Buns become stale and harder to eat.
JOEY CHESTNUT REFLECTS ON RETURN TO HOT DOG EATING CONTEST AFTER CONTRACT DISPUTE, TEMPORARY BAN
The 17-time Mustard Belt winner ate a personal-low 54 HBD in 2010, and it was 96° outside. When Chestnut downed a record-setting 76 HBD in 2021, the weather was in the mid-70s, which he considers perfect weather for the contest. In 2020, the hot dog eating contest was moved indoors due to the COVID pandemic, and Chestnut ate a then-record 75 HBD.
Winner Without Joey Chestnut: James Webb (+650) via FanDuel
Patrick Bertoletti is the odds-on favorite in this market at -300 based partially on the fact that he won the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest when Chestnut was banned from competing because of his sponsorship deal with Impossible Foods. But last July 4th, Bertoletti only ate one more HBD than Webb (46.5-45.5).
Bertoletti’s implied win probability at -300 is 75%, and Webb’s implied win probability is 13% on the +650 odds. Simply put, Bertoletti isn’t 62% more likely to down more HBD than Webb, who is second behind Chestnut in MLE with three wins this season.
That includes two record-breaking performances by Webb in the ManorPalooza World Texas Sausage-Eating Championship (55 Texas sausages) and Kickoff To Summer Blackberry Moonshine Wing Championship (256 wings).
Gideon Oji (-145) > Radim Dvořáček
In his two Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contests, Dvořáček has downed 23 HBD in 2024 and 30.5 last year. Oji, on the other hand, has eaten 31+ HBD in eight of his 10 career glizzy contests, including three straight.
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Dvořáček is 12th in MLE’s rankings, and Oji is ninth. Oji won the 2026 National Sweet Corn Eating Championship, whereas Dvořáček doesn’t have a win this season.
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