We are officially in the closing stretch of the PGA TOUR 2026 season, with last week’s Travelers Championship being the final “signature event” of the year. This week, the TOUR heads to Silvis, Illinois, aka the Quad Cities, for the 2026 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.
This is a relatively soft field since most of the best players on TOUR are skipping this tournament to get ready for the next two weeks overseas for the Genesis Scottish Open and golf’s final major, The 154th Open Championship in England.
Historically, the John Deere has been a showcase for up-and-coming stars, longshots and veterans. Jordan Spieth became the youngest PGA TOUR champion when he won the 2013 John Deere at 19-years-old and won it again in 2015. Bryson DeChambeau won his first PGA TOUR event here as well.
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That said, I’m leading my 2026 John Deere Classic card with one of the best amateur golfers ever making his first start as a full-time TOUR pro. Otherwise, I’m allocating 2.46 units (u) on my five outrights and 1.25u on their top-fives “including ties.” Here’s who I’m riding with at TPC Deere Run.
2026 John Deere Classic Betting Card
The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
🇺🇸 Jackson Koivun +2700 (0.74u) and Top-5 with ties +530 (0.25u), both at DraftKings
🇺🇸 Jacob Bridgeman +3300 at BetMGM (0.61u) and Top-5 with ties +573 at Kalshi (0.25u)
🇰🇷 Tom Kim +3500 at DraftKings (0.57u) and Top-5 with ties +755 at Kalshi (0.25u)
🇺🇸 Denny McCarthy +6566 (0.30u) and Top-5 with ties +1073 (0.25u), both at Kalshi
🇦🇷 Emiliano Grillo +8400 (0.24u) at DraftKings and Top-5 with ties +1240 at Kalshi (0.25u)
Jackson Koivun
This is Koivun’s first start as a full-time PGA TOUR pro, earning his status through the PGA TOUR University’s accelerated program. He is the first golfer ever to win all four collegiate awards this year while playing for Auburn.
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Koivun has made the cut in eight of his 10 PGA TOUR events, including T23, and the low amateur score at the 2026 U.S. Open with Ryder Cowan his last time out, T4 at the 2025 Procore Championship, T5 at the 2026 Wyndham Championship, T6 at the ISCO Championship (an alternate event) and T11 at last year’s John Deere.
He has gained strokes with his driver in those five starts, and he has gained strokes with the putter in eight straight tournaments with ShotLink data. It would be insane for Koivun to win his first tournament as a full-time pro, but he is a generational talent, and that’s good enough to get my money in this god-awful field.
Jacob Bridgeman
If the John Deere were in April, Bridgeman’s odds would be shorter than +2000. He looked like the GOAT to start the season, finishing T18-or-better in the first eight events of 2026, featuring a win at The Genesis Invitational and a T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship.
After struggling since The Masters, Bridgeman finished T11 at the RBC Canadian Open and T39 at the U.S. Open in his past two starts. His putter cooled off, but he is still second in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on TOUR this year.
Bridgeman picked up 4.58 strokes on the greens at Shinnecock for the U.S. Open, which has some of the toughest green complexes in the world. Last year, he tied for fifth at the John Deere while gaining strokes across the board: Driving, on approach, around-the-green and putting.
Finally, most of the approach shots at TPC Deere Run are from 100-150 yards, and Bridgeman has been dialed in with his wedges this season. He ranks ninth on TOUR this year in proximity to the hole on approach shots from 100-125 yards and 12th in the 125-150-yard range.
Tom Kim
These odds are disrespectful. There is no way Eric Cole, Pierceson Coody and Michael Thorbjornsen should have better odds to win the John Deere. None of those guys have won on the PGA TOUR, whereas Kim has three wins, and he is younger than all of them.
Coming off a T15 at the RBC Canadian Open and a third at the U.S. Open in his last two starts, Kim is starting to look like the player who burst onto the scene with two wins in his first six months on TOUR.
Over the last 20 rounds, Kim leads the field in SG: Approach, per Bet The Number. The 24-year-old has gained strokes on the greens in four of his last five starts, and he is one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR. Based on this weak field, his lead-in form and resume, Kim’s odds should be lower than +3000.
Denny McCarthy
Even though it’s been a down year for McCarthy, I’m taking a flier on him because of his strong course history. He finished T11 in last year’s John Deere Classic, T7 in 2024, T6 in 2023 and T6 in 2022.
McCarthy was one of the top five betting favorites in the last four John Deere Classics. His shortest closing odds over that span were +1550 in 2023 when he was the betting favorite.
TPC Deere Run is an easy tee-to-green test and a “birdie fest,” so you have to make putts. McCarthy is one of the best putters on TOUR and pounds fairways when he is playing well. He has gained strokes on the field in driving accuracy and putting in six of his seven John Deere Classics.
McCarthy showed some life last week, finishing T14 at the Travelers Championship and gaining strokes across the board vs. a star-studded field. If he builds off last week’s performance, McCarthy’s odds shouldn’t be four times higher this year than the previous four, given how well he plays at TPC Deere Run.
Emiliano Grillo
The Argentinian’s juju is probably solid because his native country is the reigning World Cup champion and has a realistic chance of going back-to-back this summer. In his three career John Deere Classics, Grillo lost in a playoff to Brian Campbell last year, missed the cut in 2023, and tied for second in 2022.
Grillo missed the cut two years ago while carding a -2, so it wasn’t like he played that badly. TPC Deere Run strongly favors driving accuracy over distance, and Grillo has gained strokes on the field in driving accuracy in 11 consecutive starts, according to DataGolf.com.
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He finished T20 at the RBC Canadian Open and a respectable T23 at the U.S. Open in his last two outings. Again, this is a weak field; Grillo is a two-time PGA TOUR winner, and he is coming into the John Deere in decent form. Hence, Grillo has more win equity than his +8400 odds indicate.
2026 John Deere Classic ‘One-and-Done’ Pick: Jacob Bridgeman
Mayo Cup season standings: 4,391st with $4,853,780
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