As we get closer and closer to the baseball postseason, we will see some alterations in rotations. Teams will know who is important to start in which games, and teams will also adjust to get their rotation set up for the postseason. Today has some great pitching matchups on the slate, but none is better than the one we get as the Braves take on the Brewers.
The Atlanta Braves have been one of the best teams in baseball this season. Last year was a bit of a disaster when the Braves finished in the bottom portion of their division. This was mostly due to injury, and this year has seen a lot more health from the club. It also helps that their hitters are having strong seasons once again. Matt Olson has 36 homers, but only 77 RBIs, so it probably would help for them to get on in front of him a bit more. If there is one area the team has struggled, it is probably on the road. They are still over .500 with a 33-30 record for the year, but compared to their home performance, this is a bit underwhelming.
The team gets their ace throwing today as Chris Sale takes the hill. Sale is 12-8 for the season with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. He also has 160 strikeouts for the year. If you’re looking to see how well he is doing compared to the rest of the league, he is ninth in wins, second in ERA, 11th in strikeouts, and seventh in WHIP. So, he’s basically pitching at a Cy Young level. He has been better at home than on the road, though, so maybe there is an opportunity to get to Sale. However, to be clear, he has allowed 19 earned runs all year on the road, and six of them came in one game against the Angels. He faced the Brewers earlier this season and allowed five hits and two unearned runs in 5.2 innings of work.
The Milwaukee Brewers are the best team in baseball – at least in terms of record. Believe it or not, they also own the best run differential in baseball. If you can, without looking, name the players leading the team in hits, homers, RBIs, and even batting average, I’d be shocked. This isn’t a team that gets a ton of attention, but they just keep winning games, year after year. The small market doesn’t seem to bother them (take note, other GMs). They are also 20 games over .500 at home this season.
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One of the reasons for their success is certainly their pitching staff, led by the eventual Cy Young winner, Jacob Misiorowski. As of right now, Misiorowski is leading the league in ERA, strikeouts, and WHIP. He has a 1.75 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and 210 strikeouts. His record is 12-5, and if he can get a few more wins, he might have a chance to lead the league in every major pitching category, finishing a season for the ages. How good has he been? In his almost 140 innings and 23 starts, he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any outing. In fact, for a month, the most runs allowed were 11. He threw six innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits in a 3-2 loss.
This is one of those games where it doesn’t matter what the total is; you will be sweating out an over. It is entirely possible that both teams go six or seven innings with somewhere between zero and five baserunners. I’m not advocating that you take the over 6 runs, but I really don’t know how you comfortably play the under, either. The Brewers are actually playing better baseball right now, and I think it is worth it to take a shot on them winning this one at -135. You won’t get a ton of chances to pay that low of a price with Misiorowski so I’ll take a shot here.
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