Golf: the only sport in which the fans care more about the regular season than the playoffs. In fact, most of you thought the PGA TOUR 2026 season ended after the final major, the British Open. But, nope. The FedExCup Playoffs start this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee.
Only the top 69 golfers in the FedExCup standings head to Memphis for the first round of the playoffs because Daniel Berger withdrew. With no cut and massive playoff points at stake, only the top 50 in the standings advance to next week’s BMW Championship.
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TPC Southwind is a 7,288-yard, par-70 that rewards precise iron play more than mindless bombing. Water is in play throughout; the Bermuda greens can get tricky, and missed approaches bring bogey into the equation quickly. Hence, I’m upweighting ball-striking and course management in my handicap.
My betting strategy for the St. Jude Championship is to wager enough on a golfer’s outright to profit 20 units (u), while backing them up with top-10 and 20 bets. That said, let’s talk about the guys I’m backing in the first round of the FedExCup Playoffs.
2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Best Bets
The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama +3300 (0.61u) at DraftKings and Top-10 with ties +240 (0.5u) at Kalshi
🇳🇴 Viktor Hovland +4356 (0.46u) at Kalshi and Top-10 with ties +275 (0.5u) at BetMGM
🇺🇸 Justin Thomas +5146 (0.39u) at Polymarket and Top-10 with ties +275 (0.5u) at BetMGM
🇰🇷 Tom Kim +5500 (0.36u) at DraftKings and Top-20 with ties +146 (0.75u) at Kalshi
🇺🇸 Rickie Fowler +8481 (0.24u) at Polymarket and Top-20 with ties +189 (0.75u) at Kalshi
Hideki Matsuyama
‘Deki has five straight T20-or-better finishes at TPC Southwind, and I cashed on him when he won the 2024 St. Jude Championship at +3000. Furthermore, he has the best course history in this field, according to Betsperts Golf’s Ron Klos.
Matsuyama has five consecutive T14-or-better finishes entering the 2026 St. Jude, with a T3 (3M Open), T5 (Rocket Classic) and T7 (Wyndham Championship) in his last three tournaments.
Hideki has gained strokes on the field in driving accuracy in six consecutive starts, has picked up strokes putting in four of his last five outings, has a world-class short-game and is dialed in with his irons.
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Between his skill set and the course history/fit, Matsuyama should have a shorter price than many names ahead of him on the betting board, so I’m taking the value.
Viktor Hovland
I’m probably missing something, but Hovland shouldn’t have worse odds here than Patrick Cantlay and Si Woo Kim, who haven’t won this season, or in the last couple of seasons for that matter.
Hovland won the 2026 Travelers Championship at another TPC course (River Highlands) three starts back and nearly won the 2024 St. Jude by finishing T2.
Iron play is a separator at TPC Southwind, and Hovland has gained strokes on approach in all four majors this year and eight straight starts. Viktor is a notoriously crappy chipper, but around-the-green is deemphasized at TPC Southwind.
Regardless, as long as he plays his game this weekend — dialed in with his irons and accurate off-the-tee — Hovland will be in the mix on Sunday.
Justin Thomas
Okay, so JT is down to +3605 at Polymarket now, and I’m sorry. But I gave out my full betting card for the St. Jude via X/Twitter Monday, and I’ve only hit one outright this season. Meaning, if you don’t want to bet Thomas at the current odds, it’s a good thing you didn’t see it on X.
Also, I’m not even sure why JT’s number has come down so far. I know why I bet him, and I’ll get into that in a second. However, DataGolf.com, which is like scripture in the golf betting community, makes his true odds +2975. Bookmaker, the sharpest sportsbook for golf, has Thomas at +3002 as of Wednesday at midnight.
Back to why I bet JT. He’s won the 2020 St. Jude Invitational, and a couple of his 14 other PGA TOUR wins have come at similar courses with a ton of water hazards, such as TPC Sawgrass (THE 2021 PLAYERS Championship) and PGA National (The 2018 Honda Classic).
Thomas gained strokes on approach in his six visits to TPC Southwind. His biggest weakness is driving accuracy, and he hit a higher rate of fairways than the field in nine of his last 10 starts, including four straight, per DataGolf.com.
JT has played well this season — eight top-20 finishes, highlighted by a T4 at the 2026 PGA Championship — and if he can stay out of the water, he should play much better this week than his odds indicate.
Tom Kim
The South Korean cashed a big top-20 bet for me last week by tying for fifth at the Wyndham Championship, so I’m happy to reinvest that money back into him this week. Kim won the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open four starts back, two weeks after nearly winning the U.S. Open, where he finished third.
More importantly, his game is a perfect fit for this course. Because of all the water, accuracy off-the-tee and with your irons is important at TPC Southwind, and Kim is one of the most precise ball-strikers in the world. He ranks second in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Approach over the last 40 rounds, per Bet The Number.
Kim has gained strokes with his irons and in driving accuracy in all three St. Judes from 2022-24. He’s picked up strokes on approach in 15 of his last 16 starts, including 11 straight, according to DataGolf.com. Yeah, it’s unlikely he’ll win again in a short span, but Kim’s fair odds are roughly +4000.
Rickie Fowler
Fowler has had a roller coaster season, but he comes into the St. Jude with strong lead-in form. He has 10 top-20 finishes in 19 events this season, including three straight: T15 at the John Deere Classic, T18 at the British Open and T8 at the Rocket Classic.
At last year’s St. Jude, Fowler ranked fifth in SG: Ball-striking (driving and approach) in a T6 finish, per Betsperts Golf, and he was playing worse last season. Based on how well he is ball-striking and putting this year, Fowler can get into the mix this weekend and definitely cash a top-20 ticket.
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2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship ‘One-and-Done’ Pick: Viktor Hovland
Mayo Cup season standings: 4,307th with $5,760,849
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my “OutKick Bets Podcast” for more betting content and random rants.
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