Storm clouds formed over the Gulf this week, as American forces retaliated against Iranian attacks on neutral shipping, but it was mostly sunshine and rainbows at the NATO summit in Ankara. Donald Trump had some tough comments about a few European allies, but overall, “there was a lot of love in that room. A lot of unity.”
Naturally there are still outstanding issues that divide the alliance, such as on Greenland, and the administration is troubled by Europe’s response to the conflict with Iran, but the overall takeaway from the summit was positive—an outcome critical for preventing further Russian attacks on U.S. interests.
Ukraine’s chance of joining NATO has essentially vanished, but President Zelensky got some much-needed wins in Ankara. Just before the summit, the Russians pummeled Kyiv with ballistic and hypersonic missiles, killing at least 19 people. Unlike in previous salvos, every Russian missile landed because Ukraine is desperately short of Patriot missiles. The United States is short too, but Trump announced that he will allow Ukraine to build Patriot missiles. Ukrainian-made Patriots are still years away, but the gesture is a crucial vote of confidence in Ukraine.
Other gains are more immediate. Trump said that Zelensky has “done an amazing job,” and they seem to have fully made up from their disastrous meeting last year. Trump is also clearly impressed by Ukrainian battlefield prowess and did not lean on Kyiv to make further concessions to Russia. America’s NATO allies pledged to send at least $80 billion in assistance to Ukraine this year plus the same amount in 2027.
Germany’s Friedrich Merz also went home with a victory. His country’s defense budget is on pace to double Britain’s by 2030 and, as he told the Bundestag, Germany now has approval to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles and base them on its soil. Trump reportedly overruled some of his Pentagon subordinates, who feared the deal would upset the Kremlin.
This show of solidarity is particularly vital right now. Reports have leaked that the CIA and NATO intelligence services have detected Russian plans to launch some kind of provocation against a NATO ally soon. When asked, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk responded, “I do not intend to scare anyone, but the coming months may be critical, especially in the Baltic countries, these fears are palpable.” Vladimir Putin’s apparent goal is to show that the American commitment to NATO is worthless and thus destroy the alliance.
At first glance, this appears implausible. Russia is suffering about 30,000 casualties each month in Ukraine and cannot recruit people fast enough to make up for these losses. Ukrainian long-range strikes have harmed the Russian oil and gas industry so severely that Moscow banned diesel exports this month. Zelensky joked that he could not meet with Putin in Moscow because “there are a lot of Ukrainian drones there. It’s dangerous.” Clearly, the Kremlin has a lot on its hands.
There are several reasons this threat should be taken seriously. The first is that Russia is already up to no good in NATO territory. Its satellites are jamming GPS systems in Europe. Mysterious drones are shutting down airports throughout the continent and spying on military installations. The Russian Navy is firing warning shots at British civilians in the English Channel. And Russian intelligence services are recruiting saboteurs across the mainland.
Another is that Putin is a gambler who often takes foolish risks. During Trump’s first term, his mercenaries attacked U.S. troops and were slaughtered. The February 2022 invasion plan was poorly conceived—some Russian soldiers only found out they were not on a training exercise when the Ukrainians shot back at them—and his lightning attack on Kyiv turned into a debacle. Opening another front with NATO could be suicidal, but he might have talked himself into believing Trump would let him have his way in Europe.
The third is that although Trump clearly intends to restore NATO, not to destroy it, the tough love he dishes out could mislead Putin into thinking there’s an opportunity. He correctly called out Spain, which is a laggard on defense, and said that regarding U.S. troop levels, “a lot’s going to depend on Greenland. … A lot’s dependent on [help with] Iran.” The Pentagon is in the middle of reviewing troop deployments in Europe, though the president has repeatedly overruled premature cuts.
Trump likes to keep his options open, but he realizes some commitments, such as to NATO, strengthen his hand. The Ankara summit should give Putin second thoughts about further misadventures, and a private message from the White House to the Kremlin would help remove all doubt.
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