The New York Knicks advancing to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999 is one of, if not the, best-case scenarios for the NBA.
The league could use it.
Last year’s Finals between the Thunder and Pacers was on pace to become the least-watched NBA Finals (outside the 2020 COVID bubble season) until Game 7 slightly lifted the average. Even then, it still produced the least-watched Game 7 in Finals history.
More broadly, the NBA Finals has recently become a smaller television event than the World Series, the Masters and the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship.
That wasn’t always the case.
NEW YORK KNICKS SWEEP CAVALIERS TO REACH FIRST NBA FINALS SINCE 1999 AFTER DOMINANT GAME 4 BLOWOUT
From 2015 through 2019, the NBA Finals averaged 18.66 million viewers. Since 2020, the average has fallen to just 10.45 million. The decline is particularly notable because the Finals during that stretch still featured brands that traditionally rate well nationally, including the Warriors, Lakers (during the COVID year), and Celtics.
The NBA is undoubtedly hoping the Knicks can help reverse the trend, regardless of whether they face the Thunder or Spurs, two franchises that historically have not drawn especially strong Finals ratings. In fact, the Knicks also faced the Spurs the last time they reached the Finals. The 1999 series averaged 16.01 million viewers.
The problem then was that the series ended quickly. San Antonio won in five games. That remains the concern this year.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Thunder over Knicks in five games is currently viewed as the most likely Finals outcome. The Knicks would be roughly +200 underdogs against either Western Conference opponent, implying around a 30 percent chance to win the series outright.
Still, if the Knicks can steal an early game or two, national interest could escalate quickly.
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For all the usual resistance toward major-market teams, the Knicks could emerge as the preferred team among neutral viewers. Oklahoma City plays an analytically driven style that casual fans find grating, particularly with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s heavy reliance on drawing fouls.
The Thunder really are hard to enjoy watching.
Against the Spurs, the dynamic would be different but potentially just as compelling. The Knicks’ quest to end a 53-year championship drought would naturally attract outside intrigue. Victor Wembanyama is arguably the most fascinating prospect to enter the league since LeBron James more than 20 years ago. Still, modern sports audiences are often slower to embrace heavily marketed “next face of the league” narratives than previous generations were.
The fact he is European also matters, in terms of potential star power.
Either way, the matchup would likely create rooting interest beyond the two local fan bases, which is exactly what the NBA needs.
That said, comparing this year’s audience numbers to previous Finals will be somewhat misleading. As OutKick has previously explained, Nielsen changed its measurement system in September to a model called Big Data + Panel. The adjustment has increased estimated live sports audiences by roughly 10 percent.
That change is one reason NBA playoff ratings appear significantly stronger this season, along with the league’s television transition from TNT to NBC.
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Sorry, fanboys. The NBA playoffs ratings are not actually the highest in 33 years, as reported.
Those factors alone should help the NBA deliver its most-watched Finals of the 2020s. It would help if the series is competitive, though.
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