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A new poll from New Hampshire, the state that for a century has held the first Republican presidential primary, is the latest to indicate that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is gaining ground in a hypothetical 2028 GOP nomination matchup with Vice President JD Vance.
Vance stands at 36% support among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, with Rubio at 26%, according to a University of New Hampshire (UNH) Granite State Poll released this week.
That’s a massive shift from the previous UNH 2028 presidential nomination survey, conducted in February, which indicated Vance topping Rubio 53% to 7%.
Vance has long been viewed as the heir apparent to term-limited President Donald Trump and his MAGA and America First base. While Vance remains the clear hypothetical frontrunner, Rubio has narrowed the gap in national polls and surveys conducted in key early-voting presidential primary states ahead of a race that is not expected to begin in earnest until after this autumn’s midterm elections.
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Rubio’s rise in the 2028 polls this year comes amid an increase in his responsibilities and public profile, including his role in the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the ongoing war against Iran.
Rubio, who as a senator from Florida was one of more than a dozen Republican contenders who ran and lost to Trump in the tumultuous 2016 presidential primary, came in a close second to Vance earlier this year in the closely watched 2028 Republican presidential nomination straw poll at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, which is better known by its acronym CPAC.
Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who ran for the nomination in 2016 and is mulling another bid, stood a distant third at 8% in the new UNH survey, along with former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was the runner-up to Trump in 2024.
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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who also bid for the nomination in 2024, grabbed 6% support, with everyone else tested at 4% or less.
“There’s nobody else in the conversation besides those two, so this poll makes sense,” New Hampshire-based Republican consultant David Carney, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns, told Fox News Digital as he referred to Vance and Rubio.
The latest surveys and straw poll results are fuel for intrigue over what some in the Republican Party see as a budding rivalry between Rubio and Vance, who describe each other as friends.
Partially fueling Rubio’s rise is Trump, who has lavishly praised his secretary of state.
The president earlier this year declared that Rubio would go down as “the greatest secretary of state in history.”
Trump has also promoted a Vance-Rubio ticket — calling it “unstoppable” — but has not said who should be at the top of the ticket.
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But the president did say last year that Vance is “most likely” his heir apparent. “In all fairness, he’s the vice president,” Trump added.
While Vance has demurred when questioned about 2028, he has built a political team of advisers who, if he runs as expected, would quickly build out a presidential campaign.
Rubio, who is crisscrossing the globe as part of his job requirements, doesn’t have a similar group of political aides. And Rubio has said he’ll back Vance if the vice president launches a 2028 campaign.
Regardless, Republican sources confirmed to Fox News earlier this year that a group of GOP donors supporting the secretary of state are quietly exploring ways to boost Rubio’s political profile.
That’s not sitting well with some in the president’s political orbit.
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“Vice President Vance is the future of the Republican Party and Marco Rubio is one of his closest friends in the administration,” an operative in Trump’s political orbit told Fox News Digital earlier this year.
“The divisive stories from some donors trying to cause chaos are not helpful,” the operative, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, emphasized.
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Vance has also weighed in, telling Fox News’ Martha MacCallum earlier this year that “Marco is my closest friend in the administration.”
And the vice president, in his interview on Fox News’ “The Story,” added, “I think it’s so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn’t any conflict.”
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Trump will have a massive influence on the 2028 GOP nomination race to succeed him. An endorsement from the president would give a major boost to whomever he backs.
But a longtime Republican strategist, who asked to remain anonymous to speak more freely, offered a warning for the vice president: “Vance is in the catbird seat until some really goes bad and Trump is going to blame him… I can’t image Vance walking this tightrope for two more years without pissing off Trump.”
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