It’s early. It’s still early in the 2026 Major League Baseball season.
That’s the mantra New York Mets fans must be repeating to themselves, considering what’s happened to baseball’s second most expensive team through the first three-plus weeks of the regular season.
The Mets started the season 7-4 through the first 11 games, taking three out of four from the San Francisco Giants. That series win came despite losing Juan Soto to a calf injury on April 3rd. Then they beat the Arizona Diamondbacks to win their fourth game in a row. That was April 7th. Since then, the wheels have come off.
And it’s culminated in a stunning 10-game losing streak, which got extended thanks to a 4-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs on Saturday afternoon.
New York Mets Are Already Falling Out Of Contention
They lost the final two games of the series against the Diamondbacks by a combined score of 14-3. Then they got swept by the Athletics at Citi Field, scoring just six runs in three games and getting shut out twice. New York then went to Los Angeles for a three-game series against the Dodgers. That went worse.
The Mets lost 4-0, 2-1, then saw their closer Devin Williams implode in an 8-2 defeat to finish out yet another sweep. After an off day, they went to Chicago to play the Cubs. And they’ve been outscored 16-6 en route to losing the series and extending the losing streak to 10 games.
New York even had a brief lead on Saturday, thanks to Mark Vientos’ solo home run to go up 1-0 in the second inning. Sure enough, the Cubs tied it right back in the bottom of the second. And then took the lead when Carson Kelly hit a three-run homer in the sixth.
Remember, this is a team that has a luxury tax payroll of roughly $381 million, plus a $126 million estimated tax bill, for total payout of $507 million. They are now 7-14, have lost 10 games in a row, find themselves in last place in the National League East, have the second worst run differential in the NL at -24, and are tied for dead last in all of Major League Baseball in runs scored.
It’s early. Right? Well, yes, to some extent, but the Mets’ brutal start has already severely impacted their probabilities for the rest of the season. Per Fangraphs projected playoff odds, the Mets peaked on March 27th with an 89% chance of playing postseason baseball. Just three weeks later, that number has fallen to 47.5%.
There’s now a greater likelihood that the Mets miss the playoffs than there is of them reaching it. They’re 6.5 games behind the first place Atlanta Braves already, and 5.5 games out of what would be a wild card spot. Those deficits can be made up, but this hole they’ve put themselves in is getting serious in a hurry.
Almost nobody on the team is hitting. Top prospect Carson Benge is hitting .150 with a .217 slugging percentage. Big free agent signing Bo Bichette has struggled mightily. Jorge Polanco is hitting .179. Brett Baty has a .197 on base percentage. Marcus Semien, brought over for Brandon Nimmo, has just one home run and a .577 OPS. They’re so desperate for offense, they signed Tommy Pham. The Dodgers, as a team, have a 138 weighted runs created plus, 38% better than league average. New York? Entering Saturday, their team wRC+ was 81, 19% worse than league average.
They’ve scored 18 runs over the 10-game losing streak, just 1.8 per game. It’s ugly.
Yes, the Mets could recover and salvage their season, particularly with Soto expected back in the next 7-10 days. But this is a stark reminder than building a team isn’t an exact science, even with a gigantic payroll at or near the top of the league. The Dodgers make it look easy. The Mets make it look hard. Oh, and the funniest part? It’s all Zohran Mamdani’s fault.
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