Reporter’s Notebook: Paul stands firm against spending bill as shutdown clock ticks

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., was the only Republican who broke with his party and voted no on the test vote to break a filibuster on the deal to reopen the government.

Paul voted nay because he wanted a guarantee of a change in the bill regarding hemp.

The measure prevents “unregulated sales” of “intoxicating hemp-based” products at gas stations and small retailers. It preserves the sale of non-intoxicating CBD in other hemp-related products.

So if the Senate got 60 votes last night to break the filibuster and only needs 51 to pass the bill, why is the Senate stymied by Paul?

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It’s about speed.

Buckle up for this next part. It gets complicated.

The vote last night was on breaking a filibuster to proceed to the original House-passed spending measure from September. That needed 60 yeas.

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Therefore, the Senate has just broken a filibuster to begin work on the bill.

By rule, the Senate can run out 30 hours of debate after breaking the filibuster, unless Paul relents. That would get us to a minor procedural vote to actually get on the bill by dawn Tuesday morning.

That is, unless there’s an agreement with Paul — or for that matter other Democratic senators to expedite things.

But wait. There’s more.

The intention of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., — and this was done with a wink and a nod to secure an agreement last night — is for him to file what’s called a “substitute” amendment. A substitute simply removes the House’s old bill text and replaces it with the new spending package.

But because this is a substitute amendment, Thune must then file cloture to break a filibuster on that. By rule, Thune could not do that until Tuesday. Cloture petitions require an intervening day before ripening. So that means the Senate could not vote to break a filibuster on the substitute (e.g. the new bill) until Thursday. Again, that needs 60 yeas. And if there’s no deal, the Senate could bleed out another clock before voting yes or no on the substitute. Presumably that would be Friday.

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But we’re not done yet.

If the Senate adopts the new text on Friday, then Thune must file cloture again on the underlying bill on Friday, wait a day (Saturday) and then have a vote to break a filibuster on that (again needing 60 votes) Sunday.

This scenario means that the Senate would finally pass the newly revamped spending bill next Monday. And it would mean that the House doesn’t tackle the bill until Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

So it really stretches out the government shutdown.

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That said, this is probably not going to happen. That’s doing things by the book.

But it’s also why it’s in the interest of Thune to get a deal with Paul to accelerate things. Otherwise, Paul or the Democrats who oppose the bill can really slow things down and extend the shutdown.