Baseball is one of those sports where anything can happen. Any given day a bad team can beat a powerhouse. I always advocate for bettors to be extremely cautious when playing big favorites. Just because a Cy Young winner is on the mound doesn’t mean we should be betting on them automatically. Obviously, it gives you a better chance to win, but it guarantees nothing. I do think we have a great opportunity with one on the mound today as the Miami Marlins play the Colorado Rockies.
The Marlins have been doing a solid job this season of making it all work out. Despite being in a top market for desirability, the team tends to avoid paying players. They are constantly retooling and don’t really want to invest in players. That doesn’t mean they have no talent on the roster. Actually, it is quite the opposite. They have a lot of good young talent, and when it clicks, they can make deep runs into the postseason. Overall, they are 44-40 for the season, but they need to learn how to win on the road at 16-23 for the year.
It will be interesting to see if the team keeps their players at the deadline, seeing as how they are above .500. Sandy Alcantara takes the hill tonight, and he will be dangled in trade talks regardless of how well the Marlins are doing. They don’t want to pay him, and he is going to look for a good contract. He is 8-4 for the season with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Those aren’t his Cy Young numbers, but they are decent enough. He has also shown flashes of his dominant form. He has thrown five straight quality starts for the Marlins, and his first start of this season was a seven-inning, one unearned run on four hits performance against the Rockies.
The Rockies are in the midst of yet another losing season. There are very few franchises in worse spots than the Rockies and the Los Angeles Angels. They are almost 20 games under .500 at 33-51, but they are surprisingly good at home this year. They are 18-22 for the year in Colorado. I’m interested to see how they act at the trade deadline because there aren’t a ton of guys you’d want to go after, and a lot tend to be viewed as having inflated numbers from playing at Coors Field. Their pitching remains a problem and the team has an ERA of 5.47.
Tonight, the team turns to Sean Sullivan, who is 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA in three starts. His first one wasn’t terrible as he went three innings against the Athletics and allowed just two hits. He then allowed eight runs to the Chicago Cubs in four innings of work. His third start was against the Boston Red Sox, and this was the first start of his career in Colorado. He went five innings, allowed three earned runs on five hits and five walks. It probably should’ve been a worse start for him.
The total is one I have mixed feelings about. The 11.5 is a reasonable number, but I think it could be a sweat either way. Sullivan is going to give up some runs, but you just don’t know if it will be three or if it will be ten. I think Alcantara will allow just a few runs.
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I think the best play is to grab the Marlins on the moneyline. Looking at the team, they are in solid form at the moment, having won four of the past five. I would advise not playing it if it gets much higher than the -140 I’ve taken it at. We aren’t getting the best number anymore, so just be cautious. I also like Alcantara at 5+ strikeouts at -116.
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