Week 4 of the NCAA season is here, and we are starting to see a lot more ranked match-ups on the schedule. The first few weeks are typically designed so that bad teams can be beat up by the good teams. The good teams schedule them to figure out where they need to improve so that by the time Week 4 comes along, they can be ready for a tough match-up. However, not everyone takes that approach, and an example of that is here in the Texas vs. Tennessee game.
Texas comes into this game as the #1 ranked team in the nation. The Longhorns earned the honor after taking down Ohio State in a home game two weeks ago. That was sandwiched between two games that were laughable contests for the Longhorns. In Week 1, they demolished Texas State, winning 59-7. Last week, in Week 3, they won 30-6, again with no real struggle. The Ohio State game was quite the challenge, with Ohio State dominating the first half before Texas climbed back to win in the second half.
There are plenty of weapons on this Texas team, but most of the attention is going to fall on their quarterback, Arch Manning. It isn’t just because of Manning’s last name. He was the top prospect in football coming out of high school, and now is discussed as the top pick in the draft. He’s been just okay in college and even this season. For the year, Manning has thrown for 661 yards on 59-of-96 passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. He will need to be more accurate if he wants to lead Texas to a win in a hostile environment this weekend.
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Tennessee is the 14th-ranked team in the country and currently sits at a 3-0 record. A win today will catapult the Volunteers up the rankings and give them a legitimate chance to make the College Football Playoffs. I’m not sure it would completely derail Texas’s chance, but it would make their path more difficult. This is the first real test for Tennessee this season, and I’m interested to see if they can actually make this competitive.
In the first three games of the season, Tennessee has outscored opponents a combined 143 to 42. Two of those three games have been at home, where it is easier to win. On the road, they struggled a bit to stop Georgia Tech, which does give me concern about this team. Beating Furman and Kennesaw State at home isn’t quite as impressive an accomplishment. I suppose you can just be happy they took care of business when they needed to do it.
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In order for Tennessee to win the game, they need to try and run the ball and milk the clock. Despite them putting up points at will this season, I can’t imagine they want to get into a shootout with the Longhorns. That strategy does seem to play into what the Volunteers want to do, as they’ve run the ball 133 times compared to just 74 pass plays.
I think Texas will win, but I’m not convinced they cover the full -4. Instead, the under is the way to go for me in this one as I expect a slower-paced game with both teams running and avoiding mistakes when possible. Give me under 55.5.
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