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In 1979, American indecision and the abandonment of a loyal ally helped pave the way for the rise of Islamist terrorism and the loss of pro-Western Iran to the Soviet camp. In 2026, the same reluctance to support Iran’s pro-democracy opposition and its recognized leadership has once again strengthened Islamist forces, leaving America humiliated and strategically diminished while the struggle between radical Islamism and Iranian nationalism continues beneath the surface.
Many Iranians view 1979’s revolt as the beginning of a regime built on violence and terrorism. During the uprising, Trump voiced support for the Iranians while continuing to pursue a deal with Tehran. Yet many regime opponents later thanked Trump and Netanyahu for confronting Ali Khamenei, whom they regarded as the principal symbol of repression and bloodshed in Iran.
Reasonable people can support or oppose the agreement. Yet several realities should not be ignored. Throughout history, dictators and terrorist movements have not changed their nature simply because others chose to negotiate with them. A dictator does not become a friend of freedom overnight, and a terrorist organization does not suddenly begin handing flowers and chocolates to the very people it has oppressed and humiliated.
The belief that Iran’s barbaric ruling system can fundamentally change without dismantling its destructive ideological foundations and propaganda machinery is unrealistic. The structure remains intact. The institutions that sustain the regime remain in place. Eliminating a few commanders or military assets does not dismantle a deeply entrenched junta and ideological system.
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The elimination of Qassem Soleimani and Ali Khamenei dealt a significant blow to the regime’s prestige and morale. Yet because the broader structure survived, those who inherited power are now seeking survival and time. They offer promises that may appeal to Trump, but many Iranians do not believe them.
As a result, Trump, once viewed by many Iranians as a hero for confronting Tehran’s dictator, is now seen by many of those same people as having abandoned their cause in favor of another deal with the regime. Many opponents of the regime believe that another agreement has come at the expense of those who lost their lives during the uprising.
One of Trump’s most significant achievements during his first term was the elimination of Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s regional terror network. If the deaths of Imad Mughniyeh and Osama bin Laden were major milestones in the fight against Islamic terrorism, then the elimination of Soleimani was arguably even more consequential.
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Yet Soleimani’s demise did not destroy the structure he helped build. Ahmad Vahidi, now one of the most influential figures in the post-Khamenei order, remained part of the system. The overseas terrorist apparatus of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Quds Force continues to exist.
Soleimani’s end did not wreck the structure he built. The terrorist network survived. As a result, many fear that the agreement, much like previous diplomatic openings with Tehran, will encourage a renewed sense of impunity within the regime’s security establishment.
Another important development was the weakening of Tehran’s proxy network and the reduction of its regional influence. When Israel perceived an existential threat to its survival, Mossad — under the leadership of Yossi Cohen and later David Barnea — succeeded in significantly damaging the Islamic Republic’s transnational terror network throughout the so-called Shiite Crescent.
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Yet the network has not disappeared. The regime’s “4H” axis — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi militias — remains intact, and Tehran continues to rely on these groups to create pressure on Israel whenever necessary.
A third important factor was Trump’s support for Israel in the face of direct Iranian missile and drone attacks. The threats made by Khamenei against Israel and the Jewish people echoed rhetoric previously associated with some of the most notorious dictators of the modern era. Factually, Khamenei was one of the principal figures behind the forces responsible for the atrocities of October 7, 2023.
Trump, once viewed by many Iranians as a hero for confronting Tehran’s dictator, is now seen by many of those same people as having abandoned their cause in favor of another deal with the regime.
For decades, the regime relied on proxy groups to confront Israel. Yet it eventually crossed a historic threshold by launching direct missile and drone attacks against the Jewish state. In the eyes of many opponents of the regime, this demonstrated the true nature of Tehran’s ambitions.
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Many Iranians welcomed efforts by Israel and the United States to weaken the Islamic Republic and the IRGC, hoping that increased pressure on the regime would bring Iran closer to freedom and democracy. From that perspective, President Trump’s support for Israel remains one of the most significant and commendable aspects of his Middle East policy.
Yet the greatest danger remains. If the regime is given an opportunity to rebuild, neither its terrorist infrastructure nor its ambitions of regional domination will disappear. Within the ideological framework established by Khomeini, hostility toward the United States and Israel remains a central principle. The regime may change its tactics for survival, but it does not abandon its long-term objectives.
If Tehran succeeds in buying time and recovering its strength, the same network of Islamist terrorism will reemerge. The regime’s “4H” axis — Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and Hashd al-Shaabi — will remain in place alongside other terrorist organizations linked to Tehran’s regional strategy. Many Iranians believe the previous Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) strengthened the regime’s terrorist infrastructure rather than benefiting ordinary citizens. Critics fear new financial relief will produce the same result.
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Ultimately, the issue is not whether an agreement is signed or rejected. The real issue is preventing the reconstruction of the transnational terrorist infrastructure that could once again threaten American interests, U.S. allies and regional stability.
Ironically and regrettably, President Trump’s willingness to reach another agreement with Tehran demonstrates that there is no genuine desire in Washington to pursue regime change in Iran. Critics argue that peaceful coexistence with this cancerous regime in the heart of the Middle East is simply not possible. In actuality, the regime may change its tactics, but it cannot change its nature.
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The regime also faces a growing internal crisis, and the forces that fueled the uprising have not disappeared. Many Iranians believe that the aspirations of the protest movement were ultimately ignored and that the current agreement has diverted attention from the central struggle inside Iran.
Iran’s future will ultimately be determined not by agreements signed abroad, but by the continuing struggle between a regime fighting for survival and a society demanding political change.
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