I did pretty well in soccer yesterday. I had three plays and went 2-1 for the day. Looking back on it I probably should’ve taken a full unit on the one bet I felt most confident in — both teams scoring in the Canada game. Today, there is a big card for the World Cup as they try to get the last of the games in for the group stage. Let’s put some bets on these games.
Ecuador vs. Germany
Ecuador needs to get a win if they want to advance. Germany has already locked up their spot in the next round. What do you do when one team has their fate locked up and the other needs to get a win in order to stay alive? Germany is a significantly better team, but most teams tend to rest their players when they have already taken care of business. Ecuador still has not scored in this World Cup, losing their first game 1-0, and their second game was a draw 0-0. I think Ecuador will likely take their chances, but there is some good opportunity to grab some money on their team total under 0.5 goals at +149. Even if Germany rests their best players, they’ve only allowed four total shots on goal in two games. I’ll take a shot.
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Japan vs. Sweden
This is the most important game of the day. It has massive implications for the next round, but it also has two of the better teams facing each other. If Japan wins or gets a draw, they advance. A win and a loss from the Netherlands means they also win Group F. A loss means they would have to hope they get in as a third-place team. For Sweden, getting a win means they advance past Japan and will make it into the next round. A loss probably eliminates them, and a draw gives them the same fate as Sweden. I think this will be a very strategic and cautious game from both teams. Give me the under 2.5 with so much on the line.
Turkey vs. United States
If you’ve been living under a rock, you probably are unaware that the United States has advanced to the next round. This is the first time since 1930 that they’ve gone 2-0 in the World Cup. This game means nothing to them, aside from pride. Turkey has lost both games they’ve played 1-0 to Paraguay and 2-0 to Australia. The United States has beaten both of those teams with relative ease. The only reason that Turkey has a chance at a point in this game is that the United States has already stated it will likely rest a lot of key guys for the next game. I do think the backups could still beat Turkey. Give me the United States at -115. I like both teams to score, but at -170 it is too pricey for me.
Australia vs. Paraguay
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This is a very similar game to the one between Japan and Sweden. A win for Australia gives them automatic qualification to the Round of 32. Paraguay would have the same fate with a win. A draw would give Australia the second spot and push them through because they have a better goal differential than Paraguay. So, essentially, Paraguay needs to win. Australia can win or draw and advance. I think the draw is the most likely option at +130, but Paraguay is likely to take more chances in this game. That may open them up for some exposure. Give me Australia to win at +340. To be very clear, this is a complete shot based on the value instead of me being certain they will win.
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