Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack on Monday said that she thinks there will be a need for more than one interest rate hike to prevent inflation from becoming more entrenched across the economy.
Hammack made the comments in an interview with Yahoo Finance that followed her dissent from the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. She and two other members of the central bank’s monetary policy panel voted in favor of raising interest rates by 25 basis points.
“I would say in general, one 25-basis-point move probably doesn’t do a whole lot for the economy,” she said. “So it’s probably some number of [movements]. But I don’t want to prejudge what that number is going to be.”
Hammack added that “I don’t know exactly where we will end,” adding that she thinks the current target range for the benchmark federal funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75% is not “meaningfully restricting” the economy amid stubborn inflation.
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“When I’m talking to businesses, I’m not hearing that they’re sensing any restraint from investments in growth based on where interest rates are,” she said in the interview. “So to me that says that now is the time to act.”
Hammack said that the longer the central bank waits to address inflation through higher interest rates, the more difficult it will be to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.
Inflation has been running well above that target, with the consumer price index (CPI) up 3.5% through June, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index – was 3.7% in June.
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Hammack said in the interview that raising rates is similar to gradually applying the brakes when approaching a stop sign so as to glide to a stop, rather than slamming the brakes with a more dramatic policy move to stop price growth.
“I think that now is the time for us to start acting, to start bringing more restraint into policy,” she said.
“Nothing would make me feel better than to be wrong, that we need to change the stance of policy to help bring inflation back to target. But from where I sit, I just don’t see it coming back on its own,” Hammack added.
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The Cleveland Fed president also discussed the July jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 jobs when economists expected a gain of around 80,000 jobs, but said in the interview that she is “still not seeing a problem” with the labor market given that the 4.1% unemployment rate is near her estimate of full employment.
Fed policymakers will hold their next meeting in mid-September, and they’ll have fresh inflation data to parse in the meantime with the July CPI data set to be released on Wednesday and the PCE reading for the month due in late August.
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