This article was originally published by Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge.
Summary
- Reuters reported that Ayatollah ordered that the stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory. Some Iranian officials then denied the report to Al Jazeera.
- WH says make a deal or else… “they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history.”
- US Intelligence says Iran has reconstituted drone program, defense industrial base, “faster than expected” (CNN).
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Yes 51% · No 50%
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Drones, Military Industrial Base Being Rapidly Restored Amid Extended Ceasefire
The Iranians have reportedly rebuilt damaged and destroyed defense industrial sites much faster than expected. That’s according to US intelligence assessments cited in CNN, and based on anonymous officials. The Pakistan-mediated talks have been stalled, and each of the last several weeks has seen Washington issue updated peace conditions, only for Tehran to, in return, counter-issue its own demands. And round and round the indirect negotiation has gone, yet with no breakthrough, or not so much as a step forward.
But perhaps this was all a tactic to simply prolong the ceasefire? It allowed Iran to rearm and regroup after the prior 38 days of US-Israeli bombing. “Iran has already restarted some of its drone production during the six-week ceasefire that began in early April, one sign it is rapidly rebuilding certain military capabilities degraded by US-Israeli strikes, according to two sources familiar with US intelligence assessments,” CNN reports Thursday. “Four sources told CNN that US intelligence indicates Iran’s military is reconstituting much faster than initially estimated.”
One US official cited in the report has gone so far as to say, “The Iranians have exceeded all timelines the IC had for reconstitution.” In the recent past, White House officials themselves have admitted that the Islamic Republic is probably reconstituting. Trump, in the meantime, keeps saying he’s ‘days’ away from reordering strikes amid Tehran’s intransigence. According to more on Iranian efforts to prepare for the next potential round of fighting:
The rebuilding of military capabilities, including replacing missile sites, launchers and production capacity for key weapons systems destroyed during the current conflict, means that Iran remains a significant threat to regional allies should President Donald Trump restart the bombing campaign, according to the four sources familiar with the intelligence. It also calls into question claims about the extent to which US-Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military in the long term.
While the time to restart production of different weapons components varies, some US intelligence estimates indicate Iran could fully reconstitute its drone attack capability in as soon as six months, one of the sources, a US official, told CNN.
Iranian Denials
Throughout the morning, and since the Reuters report was first issued, various unnamed Iranian officials have been saying the Ayatollah gave no such order regarding taking enriched uranium removal off the table when it comes to potential negotiations. According to an Al Jazeera correspondent:
A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal” The official added there are “no new order has been issued,” and that Tehran’s position has been consistent: Iran would downblend the material itself. “That is the subject of talks in the next stage,” the official said.
This will likely only fuel speculation of deep division within Iranian leadership ranks. Traditionally, the IRGC reports directly to the Ayatollah and is seen as the more hardline faction, ready to resist compromise and opt for a military response to US pressure.
Oil snaps lower on the denials… per Newsquawk:
In an immediate reaction, crude fell to the detriment of the USD and the benefit of equity and fixed benchmarks. Specifically:
• WTI Jul’26 fell from USD 102/bbl to USD 100.56/bbl.
• UST Jun’26 lifted from 109-00 to 109-04+.
• ES Jun’26 lifted from 7418 to 7433.
Ayatollah Orders Enriched Uranium To Say On Iranian Soil: RTRS
The illusion of a grand diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East is once again colliding with reality. The White House has been busy trying to paint a picture of a total capitulation by Tehran, which hasn’t been demonstrated given its consistent position defying Washington’s demands on the nuclear issue.
According to two senior Iranian officials speaking to Reuters, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has drawn a hard line in the sand, ordering that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% remain strictly inside Iranian territory.
Reuters underscores that “Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.”
“Israeli officials have told Reuters that Trump has assured Israel that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this,” the report continues.
The officials noted that within Tehran, there is deep suspicion that the ceasefire is in fact “a tactical deception by the US,” designed to lull Iran into a “false sense of security… before the fighting resumes.”
The fresh directive from from the supreme leader flies directly in the face of the narrative being spun by Washington and Tel Aviv, given Israeli officials maintain that President Trump explicitly promised Israel that Iran’s highly enriched stockpile would be completely removed from the country as part of any negotiated settlement.
Trump has also recently proclaimed this publicly, for example in a phone interview with CBS News last month, wherein he confidently proclaimed that Iran “agreed to everything” and would cooperate fully to ship its enriched uranium out of the country.
Extraction of nuclear material would of course rely heavily on the assumption of total Iranian compliance, given Trump has also lately appeared to rule out out a hostile invasion force, stating, “No. No troops.”
There seems to be widespread agreement among national security officials at this point that some kind of special forces op to covertly go in and take it would be tantamount to a ‘suicide mission’.
According to more of what Trump (prematurely) proclaimed in the prior CBS interview: “Our people, together with the Iranians, are going to work together to go get it. And then we’ll take it to the United States.”
The reality is all along the two sides’ positions have been very far apart, and largely unbending:
And on a potential deal: “We’ll be getting it together because by that time, we’ll have an agreement and there’s no need for fighting when there’s an agreement. Nice right? That’s better. We would have done it the other way if we had to” – he sought to explain.
At the moment, Iranian officials are reportedly reviewing the latest updated US proposals for peace, having reportedly asked Pakistan for time to assess and study the American points for negotiations.”
However, Khamenei locking down the 60% enriched uranium inside Iranian borders, and amid suspicion that the US ceasefire offer is but a Trojan horse to get the Islamic Republic to simply given up its potential last line of defense, doesn’t bode well for the chances of a breakthrough anytime soon.
Yes 18% · No 83%
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For the latest warning from the White House, via Stephen Miller: “Iran has a choice to make: they can either agree to a piece of paper that is satisfactory to the United States, or they can face a punishment from our military the likes of which has not been seen in modern history. That’s the choice they face,” he told Fox News.
Read the full article here
